Utah's 4th congressional district features a structurally Republican-leaning electorate, reinforced by court-ordered redistricting that places the seat in a region where Republican presidential candidates have historically prevailed by wide margins. Incumbent Representative Mike Kennedy secured the Republican nomination outright at the state convention in April 2026, consolidating party support without a contested primary. Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen advanced through convention processes but faces limited visibility and resources in this environment. Traders reflect this consensus with the Republican Party holding a commanding implied probability near 91 percent for the November 3, 2026 general election. Potential shifts remain possible from major national political realignments, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals, though current indicators show little volatility in the race.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$15,038 거래량
$15,038 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
91%
Democratic Party
9%
$15,038 거래량
$15,038 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$5,489 거래량
91%
Democratic Party
$9,549 거래량
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 4th congressional district features a structurally Republican-leaning electorate, reinforced by court-ordered redistricting that places the seat in a region where Republican presidential candidates have historically prevailed by wide margins. Incumbent Representative Mike Kennedy secured the Republican nomination outright at the state convention in April 2026, consolidating party support without a contested primary. Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen advanced through convention processes but faces limited visibility and resources in this environment. Traders reflect this consensus with the Republican Party holding a commanding implied probability near 91 percent for the November 3, 2026 general election. Potential shifts remain possible from major national political realignments, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals, though current indicators show little volatility in the race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
거래량
$15,038종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 4th congressional district features a structurally Republican-leaning electorate, reinforced by court-ordered redistricting that places the seat in a region where Republican presidential candidates have historically prevailed by wide margins. Incumbent Representative Mike Kennedy secured the Republican nomination outright at the state convention in April 2026, consolidating party support without a contested primary. Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen advanced through convention processes but faces limited visibility and resources in this environment. Traders reflect this consensus with the Republican Party holding a commanding implied probability near 91 percent for the November 3, 2026 general election. Potential shifts remain possible from major national political realignments, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals, though current indicators show little volatility in the race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$15,038종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Utah's 4th congressional district features a structurally Republican-leaning electorate, reinforced by court-ordered redistricting that places the seat in a region where Republican presidential candidates have historically prevailed by wide margins. Incumbent Representative Mike Kennedy secured the Republican nomination outright at the state convention in April 2026, consolidating party support without a contested primary. Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen advanced through convention processes but faces limited visibility and resources in this environment. Traders reflect this consensus with the Republican Party holding a commanding implied probability near 91 percent for the November 3, 2026 general election. Potential shifts remain possible from major national political realignments, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals, though current indicators show little volatility in the race.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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