Incumbent Rep. Luz Rivas (D) commands trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability to retain California's 29th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic seat with Cook PVI D+20 and 2024 presidential margins of Kamala Harris +34 points. Rivas's dominant 2024 victory (70%-30%) over Republican Benito Bernal, coupled with $434,000 cash-on-hand and endorsements from the California Democratic Party, Los Angeles County Democrats, and labor unions, solidify her position ahead of the June 2 top-two primary against Democratic challenger Angélica María Dueñas and underfunded Republican Rudy Melendez. Absent a major scandal, health issue, or national Republican wave, structural voter registration advantages (52% Democratic) and historical top-two dynamics—often advancing two Democrats—present formidable barriers to a GOP upset in the November general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$15,477 거래량
$15,477 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
93%
공화당
7%
$15,477 거래량
$15,477 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$10,326 거래량
93%
공화당
$5,151 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Luz Rivas (D) commands trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability to retain California's 29th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic seat with Cook PVI D+20 and 2024 presidential margins of Kamala Harris +34 points. Rivas's dominant 2024 victory (70%-30%) over Republican Benito Bernal, coupled with $434,000 cash-on-hand and endorsements from the California Democratic Party, Los Angeles County Democrats, and labor unions, solidify her position ahead of the June 2 top-two primary against Democratic challenger Angélica María Dueñas and underfunded Republican Rudy Melendez. Absent a major scandal, health issue, or national Republican wave, structural voter registration advantages (52% Democratic) and historical top-two dynamics—often advancing two Democrats—present formidable barriers to a GOP upset in the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
거래량
$15,477종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Luz Rivas (D) commands trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability to retain California's 29th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic seat with Cook PVI D+20 and 2024 presidential margins of Kamala Harris +34 points. Rivas's dominant 2024 victory (70%-30%) over Republican Benito Bernal, coupled with $434,000 cash-on-hand and endorsements from the California Democratic Party, Los Angeles County Democrats, and labor unions, solidify her position ahead of the June 2 top-two primary against Democratic challenger Angélica María Dueñas and underfunded Republican Rudy Melendez. Absent a major scandal, health issue, or national Republican wave, structural voter registration advantages (52% Democratic) and historical top-two dynamics—often advancing two Democrats—present formidable barriers to a GOP upset in the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$15,477종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Luz Rivas (D) commands trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability to retain California's 29th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic seat with Cook PVI D+20 and 2024 presidential margins of Kamala Harris +34 points. Rivas's dominant 2024 victory (70%-30%) over Republican Benito Bernal, coupled with $434,000 cash-on-hand and endorsements from the California Democratic Party, Los Angeles County Democrats, and labor unions, solidify her position ahead of the June 2 top-two primary against Democratic challenger Angélica María Dueñas and underfunded Republican Rudy Melendez. Absent a major scandal, health issue, or national Republican wave, structural voter registration advantages (52% Democratic) and historical top-two dynamics—often advancing two Democrats—present formidable barriers to a GOP upset in the November general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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