Following the U.S. Supreme Court's late April 2026 ruling in Louisiana v. Callais invalidating the state's congressional map as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, Louisiana legislators enacted a new map around May 13, shifting LA-06 boundaries to a Republican-friendly configuration and suspending planned May 16 primaries. Incumbent Rep. Cleo Fields (D) advanced unopposed, facing four Republican challengers—Monique Appeaning, Larry Davis, Christian Johnson, and Peter Williams—in the November 3 general election. This redistricting catalyst has driven trader consensus to price a GOP win at 77.5% implied probability, diverging sharply from prior Solid Democratic ratings (Cook PVI D+8 under the old map based on 2024 presidential results), reflecting the wisdom of crowds on the updated electoral math.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$57,425 거래량
$57,425 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
78%
Democratic Party
33%
$57,425 거래량
$57,425 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$31,036 거래량
78%
Democratic Party
$26,389 거래량
33%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Following the U.S. Supreme Court's late April 2026 ruling in Louisiana v. Callais invalidating the state's congressional map as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, Louisiana legislators enacted a new map around May 13, shifting LA-06 boundaries to a Republican-friendly configuration and suspending planned May 16 primaries. Incumbent Rep. Cleo Fields (D) advanced unopposed, facing four Republican challengers—Monique Appeaning, Larry Davis, Christian Johnson, and Peter Williams—in the November 3 general election. This redistricting catalyst has driven trader consensus to price a GOP win at 77.5% implied probability, diverging sharply from prior Solid Democratic ratings (Cook PVI D+8 under the old map based on 2024 presidential results), reflecting the wisdom of crowds on the updated electoral math.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$57,425종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Following the U.S. Supreme Court's late April 2026 ruling in Louisiana v. Callais invalidating the state's congressional map as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, Louisiana legislators enacted a new map around May 13, shifting LA-06 boundaries to a Republican-friendly configuration and suspending planned May 16 primaries. Incumbent Rep. Cleo Fields (D) advanced unopposed, facing four Republican challengers—Monique Appeaning, Larry Davis, Christian Johnson, and Peter Williams—in the November 3 general election. This redistricting catalyst has driven trader consensus to price a GOP win at 77.5% implied probability, diverging sharply from prior Solid Democratic ratings (Cook PVI D+8 under the old map based on 2024 presidential results), reflecting the wisdom of crowds on the updated electoral math.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$57,425종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Following the U.S. Supreme Court's late April 2026 ruling in Louisiana v. Callais invalidating the state's congressional map as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, Louisiana legislators enacted a new map around May 13, shifting LA-06 boundaries to a Republican-friendly configuration and suspending planned May 16 primaries. Incumbent Rep. Cleo Fields (D) advanced unopposed, facing four Republican challengers—Monique Appeaning, Larry Davis, Christian Johnson, and Peter Williams—in the November 3 general election. This redistricting catalyst has driven trader consensus to price a GOP win at 77.5% implied probability, diverging sharply from prior Solid Democratic ratings (Cook PVI D+8 under the old map based on 2024 presidential results), reflecting the wisdom of crowds on the updated electoral math.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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