The death of long-serving Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa in January 2026 triggered a special election for CA-01, with a top-two primary on June 2 under Republican-leaning boundaries where Donald Trump won by 25 points in 2024. Trader consensus prices Democratic Party victory at 91.5%, reflecting strong fundraising and name recognition among Democrats Mike McGuire—former state Senate president pro tempore—and Audrey Denney, a prior challenger, versus a split GOP field headlined by Assembly Minority Leader James Gallagher despite his Trump endorsement and fundraising lead. A February poll showed McGuire at 33% to Gallagher's 30%, signaling potential for an all-Democrat runoff on August 4 guaranteeing party control through January 2027. Upsets could arise from GOP voter consolidation propelling a Republican into the top two or an outright primary majority amid low turnout.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$22,046 거래량
$22,046 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
92%
공화당
5%
$22,046 거래량
$22,046 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$14,173 거래량
92%
공화당
$7,873 거래량
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The death of long-serving Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa in January 2026 triggered a special election for CA-01, with a top-two primary on June 2 under Republican-leaning boundaries where Donald Trump won by 25 points in 2024. Trader consensus prices Democratic Party victory at 91.5%, reflecting strong fundraising and name recognition among Democrats Mike McGuire—former state Senate president pro tempore—and Audrey Denney, a prior challenger, versus a split GOP field headlined by Assembly Minority Leader James Gallagher despite his Trump endorsement and fundraising lead. A February poll showed McGuire at 33% to Gallagher's 30%, signaling potential for an all-Democrat runoff on August 4 guaranteeing party control through January 2027. Upsets could arise from GOP voter consolidation propelling a Republican into the top two or an outright primary majority amid low turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
거래량
$22,046종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The death of long-serving Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa in January 2026 triggered a special election for CA-01, with a top-two primary on June 2 under Republican-leaning boundaries where Donald Trump won by 25 points in 2024. Trader consensus prices Democratic Party victory at 91.5%, reflecting strong fundraising and name recognition among Democrats Mike McGuire—former state Senate president pro tempore—and Audrey Denney, a prior challenger, versus a split GOP field headlined by Assembly Minority Leader James Gallagher despite his Trump endorsement and fundraising lead. A February poll showed McGuire at 33% to Gallagher's 30%, signaling potential for an all-Democrat runoff on August 4 guaranteeing party control through January 2027. Upsets could arise from GOP voter consolidation propelling a Republican into the top two or an outright primary majority amid low turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$22,046종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The death of long-serving Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa in January 2026 triggered a special election for CA-01, with a top-two primary on June 2 under Republican-leaning boundaries where Donald Trump won by 25 points in 2024. Trader consensus prices Democratic Party victory at 91.5%, reflecting strong fundraising and name recognition among Democrats Mike McGuire—former state Senate president pro tempore—and Audrey Denney, a prior challenger, versus a split GOP field headlined by Assembly Minority Leader James Gallagher despite his Trump endorsement and fundraising lead. A February poll showed McGuire at 33% to Gallagher's 30%, signaling potential for an all-Democrat runoff on August 4 guaranteeing party control through January 2027. Upsets could arise from GOP voter consolidation propelling a Republican into the top two or an outright primary majority amid low turnout.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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