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政治·トランプ

トランプ氏は、6月30日までに郵送投票や投票機を禁止する行動を取るだろうか？

Market icon
政治·トランプ

トランプ氏は、6月30日までに郵送投票や投票機を禁止する行動を取るだろうか？

はい

60% chance
Polymarket
NEW

はい

60% chance
Polymarket
NEW
On August 18, 2025, President Donald J. Trump announced his commitment to eliminate mail-in voting and voting machines in U.S. elections, ahead of the 2026 midterms. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that inhibits mail-in voting or voting machines from use for the 2026 midterm election by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any executive action or legislation that restricts, limits, or prohibits the use of mail-in voting or voting machines in any way will qualify, even if the action is delayed, suspended, or subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information from major news outlets or government statements will also be used.President Trump's intensified push for the SAVE America Act, demanding proof of citizenship for voter registration and an end to most mail-in ballots except for military, illness, or disability cases, has driven trader consensus toward a 59.5% implied probability of action by June 30. Recent statements on March 9 threatening to veto other legislation until passage, alongside a circulating draft executive order declaring an election emergency to ban mail-in voting and voting machines—promoted by longtime advisor Peter Ticktin with reported White House coordination—signal escalating efforts ahead of 2026 midterms. A prior March 2025 executive order imposing ballot deadlines and machine restrictions remains blocked by courts, highlighting legal hurdles, while Supreme Court arguments last week on mail-in limits add uncertainty to the closely contested odds.

President Trump's intensified push for the SAVE America Act, demanding proof of citizenship for voter registration and an end to most mail-in ballots except for military, illness, or disability cases, has driven trader consensus toward a 59.5% implied probability of action by June 30. Recent statements on March 9 threatening to veto other legislation until passage, alongside a circulating draft executive order declaring an election emergency to ban mail-in voting and voting machines—promoted by longtime advisor Peter Ticktin with reported White House coordination—signal escalating efforts ahead of 2026 midterms. A prior March 2025 executive order imposing ballot deadlines and machine restrictions remains blocked by courts, highlighting legal hurdles, while Supreme Court arguments last week on mail-in limits add uncertainty to the closely contested odds.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
On August 18, 2025, President Donald J. Trump announced his commitment to eliminate mail-in voting and voting machines in U.S. elections, ahead of the 2026 midterms. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that inhibits mail-in voting or voting machines from use for the 2026 midterm election by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any executive action or legislation that restricts, limits, or prohibits the use of mail-in voting or voting machines in any way will qualify, even if the action is delayed, suspended, or subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information from major news outlets or government statements will also be used.President Trump's intensified push for the SAVE America Act, demanding proof of citizenship for voter registration and an end to most mail-in ballots except for military, illness, or disability cases, has driven trader consensus toward a 59.5% implied probability of action by June 30. Recent statements on March 9 threatening to veto other legislation until passage, alongside a circulating draft executive order declaring an election emergency to ban mail-in voting and voting machines—promoted by longtime advisor Peter Ticktin with reported White House coordination—signal escalating efforts ahead of 2026 midterms. A prior March 2025 executive order imposing ballot deadlines and machine restrictions remains blocked by courts, highlighting legal hurdles, while Supreme Court arguments last week on mail-in limits add uncertainty to the closely contested odds.

President Trump's intensified push for the SAVE America Act, demanding proof of citizenship for voter registration and an end to most mail-in ballots except for military, illness, or disability cases, has driven trader consensus toward a 59.5% implied probability of action by June 30. Recent statements on March 9 threatening to veto other legislation until passage, alongside a circulating draft executive order declaring an election emergency to ban mail-in voting and voting machines—promoted by longtime advisor Peter Ticktin with reported White House coordination—signal escalating efforts ahead of 2026 midterms. A prior March 2025 executive order imposing ballot deadlines and machine restrictions remains blocked by courts, highlighting legal hurdles, while Supreme Court arguments last week on mail-in limits add uncertainty to the closely contested odds.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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「トランプ氏は、6月30日までに郵送投票や投票機を禁止する行動を取るだろうか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「トランプは6月30日までに郵便投票や投票機を禁止する措置を取るか？」で60%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、60¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に60%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「トランプ氏は、6月30日までに郵送投票や投票機を禁止する行動を取るだろうか？」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Jan 21, 2026開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「トランプ氏は、6月30日までに郵送投票や投票機を禁止する行動を取るだろうか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「トランプ氏は、6月30日までに郵送投票や投票機を禁止する行動を取るだろうか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「トランプは6月30日までに郵便投票や投票機を禁止する措置を取るか？」で60%であり、市場がこの結果に60%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「トランプ氏は、6月30日までに郵送投票や投票機を禁止する行動を取るだろうか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。