Missouri Amendment 3, seeking to repeal the 2024 voter-approved constitutional right to reproductive freedom—restoring near-total abortion restrictions except in cases of rape, incest, or medical emergencies—while enshrining a ban on gender transition procedures like puberty blockers, hormones, and surgeries for minors, holds only 47% support in the latest St. Louis University/YouGov poll (February 2026), against 40% opposition and 13% undecided among likely voters. Traders' 85% implied probability of failure reflects this narrow plurality amid fundraising disparities (opponents raised over $1 million vs. supporters' $159,000 as of late 2025), the precedent of the 2024 pro-abortion rights victory (51.6%-48.4%), and persistent abortion access preferences despite 67%-73% opposition to gender-affirming care for minors. Recent Catholic bishops' endorsement on March 26 has not shifted sentiment, with the November 3 election outcome hinging on undecideds and turnout in this closely contested race.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Missouri voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Amendment 3) which, if passed, would repeal the constitutional right to reproductive freedom, prohibit most abortions, and prohibit gender transition surgeries for minors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Missouri Amendment 3, the Prohibit Abortion and Gender Transition Procedures for Minors Amendment, passes according to Missouri election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If Amendment 3 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Missouri, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Missouri, specifically the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov).Missouri Amendment 3, seeking to repeal the 2024 voter-approved constitutional right to reproductive freedom—restoring near-total abortion restrictions except in cases of rape, incest, or medical emergencies—while enshrining a ban on gender transition procedures like puberty blockers, hormones, and surgeries for minors, holds only 47% support in the latest St. Louis University/YouGov poll (February 2026), against 40% opposition and 13% undecided among likely voters. Traders' 85% implied probability of failure reflects this narrow plurality amid fundraising disparities (opponents raised over $1 million vs. supporters' $159,000 as of late 2025), the precedent of the 2024 pro-abortion rights victory (51.6%-48.4%), and persistent abortion access preferences despite 67%-73% opposition to gender-affirming care for minors. Recent Catholic bishops' endorsement on March 26 has not shifted sentiment, with the November 3 election outcome hinging on undecideds and turnout in this closely contested race.
Missouri voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Amendment 3) which, if passed, would repeal the constitutional right to reproductive freedom, prohibit most abortions, and prohibit gender transition surgeries for minors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Missouri Amendment 3, the Prohibit Abortion and Gender Transition Procedures for Minors Amendment, passes according to Missouri election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If Amendment 3 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Missouri, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Missouri, specifically the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Missouri Amendment 3, the Prohibit Abortion and Gender Transition Procedures for Minors Amendment, passes according to Missouri election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If Amendment 3 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Missouri, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Missouri, specifically the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov).
マーケット開始日： Mar 2, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
音量
$293終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 2, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Missouri voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Amendment 3) which, if passed, would repeal the constitutional right to reproductive freedom, prohibit most abortions, and prohibit gender transition surgeries for minors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Missouri Amendment 3, the Prohibit Abortion and Gender Transition Procedures for Minors Amendment, passes according to Missouri election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If Amendment 3 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Missouri, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Missouri, specifically the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov).Missouri Amendment 3, seeking to repeal the 2024 voter-approved constitutional right to reproductive freedom—restoring near-total abortion restrictions except in cases of rape, incest, or medical emergencies—while enshrining a ban on gender transition procedures like puberty blockers, hormones, and surgeries for minors, holds only 47% support in the latest St. Louis University/YouGov poll (February 2026), against 40% opposition and 13% undecided among likely voters. Traders' 85% implied probability of failure reflects this narrow plurality amid fundraising disparities (opponents raised over $1 million vs. supporters' $159,000 as of late 2025), the precedent of the 2024 pro-abortion rights victory (51.6%-48.4%), and persistent abortion access preferences despite 67%-73% opposition to gender-affirming care for minors. Recent Catholic bishops' endorsement on March 26 has not shifted sentiment, with the November 3 election outcome hinging on undecideds and turnout in this closely contested race.
Missouri voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Amendment 3) which, if passed, would repeal the constitutional right to reproductive freedom, prohibit most abortions, and prohibit gender transition surgeries for minors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Missouri Amendment 3, the Prohibit Abortion and Gender Transition Procedures for Minors Amendment, passes according to Missouri election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If Amendment 3 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Missouri, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Missouri, specifically the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Missouri Amendment 3, the Prohibit Abortion and Gender Transition Procedures for Minors Amendment, passes according to Missouri election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If Amendment 3 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Missouri, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Missouri, specifically the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov).
音量
$293終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 2, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Missouri Amendment 3, seeking to repeal the 2024 voter-approved constitutional right to reproductive freedom—restoring near-total abortion restrictions except in cases of rape, incest, or medical emergencies—while enshrining a ban on gender transition procedures like puberty blockers, hormones, and surgeries for minors, holds only 47% support in the latest St. Louis University/YouGov poll (February 2026), against 40% opposition and 13% undecided among likely voters. Traders' 85% implied probability of failure reflects this narrow plurality amid fundraising disparities (opponents raised over $1 million vs. supporters' $159,000 as of late 2025), the precedent of the 2024 pro-abortion rights victory (51.6%-48.4%), and persistent abortion access preferences despite 67%-73% opposition to gender-affirming care for minors. Recent Catholic bishops' endorsement on March 26 has not shifted sentiment, with the November 3 election outcome hinging on undecideds and turnout in this closely contested race.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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