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政治·米国選挙

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

Market icon
政治·米国選挙

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

16% chance
Polymarket
NEW
16% chance
Polymarket
NEW
Missouri voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Amendment 3) which, if passed, would repeal the constitutional right to reproductive freedom, prohibit most abortions, and prohibit gender transition surgeries for minors. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Missouri Amendment 3, the Prohibit Abortion and Gender Transition Procedures for Minors Amendment, passes according to Missouri election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Amendment 3 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Missouri, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Missouri, specifically the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov).Trader consensus prices an 84.5% chance that Missouri Amendment 3—a constitutional amendment to prohibit most abortions except in cases of rape, incest, fetal anomaly, or medical emergency, while banning gender transition procedures for minors—will fail on the November 3, 2026 ballot. A February St. Louis University/YouGov poll of 900 likely voters showed only 47% support versus 40% opposition (12% undecided), falling short of the simple majority needed, amid lingering backing for the 2024 voter-approved reproductive freedom amendment. Strong opposition to gender-affirming care for minors (67% against medications, 73% against surgeries) provides a boost, but fails to offset resistance to the abortion restrictions. Recent House passage of a standalone permanent transgender care ban awaits Senate action, while Missouri Supreme Court upheld existing limits in January.

Trader consensus prices an 84.5% chance that Missouri Amendment 3—a constitutional amendment to prohibit most abortions except in cases of rape, incest, fetal anomaly, or medical emergency, while banning gender transition procedures for minors—will fail on the November 3, 2026 ballot. A February St. Louis University/YouGov poll of 900 likely voters showed only 47% support versus 40% opposition (12% undecided), falling short of the simple majority needed, amid lingering backing for the 2024 voter-approved reproductive freedom amendment. Strong opposition to gender-affirming care for minors (67% against medications, 73% against surgeries) provides a boost, but fails to offset resistance to the abortion restrictions. Recent House passage of a standalone permanent transgender care ban awaits Senate action, while Missouri Supreme Court upheld existing limits in January.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
Missouri voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Amendment 3) which, if passed, would repeal the constitutional right to reproductive freedom, prohibit most abortions, and prohibit gender transition surgeries for minors. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Missouri Amendment 3, the Prohibit Abortion and Gender Transition Procedures for Minors Amendment, passes according to Missouri election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Amendment 3 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Missouri, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Missouri, specifically the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov).Trader consensus prices an 84.5% chance that Missouri Amendment 3—a constitutional amendment to prohibit most abortions except in cases of rape, incest, fetal anomaly, or medical emergency, while banning gender transition procedures for minors—will fail on the November 3, 2026 ballot. A February St. Louis University/YouGov poll of 900 likely voters showed only 47% support versus 40% opposition (12% undecided), falling short of the simple majority needed, amid lingering backing for the 2024 voter-approved reproductive freedom amendment. Strong opposition to gender-affirming care for minors (67% against medications, 73% against surgeries) provides a boost, but fails to offset resistance to the abortion restrictions. Recent House passage of a standalone permanent transgender care ban awaits Senate action, while Missouri Supreme Court upheld existing limits in January.

Trader consensus prices an 84.5% chance that Missouri Amendment 3—a constitutional amendment to prohibit most abortions except in cases of rape, incest, fetal anomaly, or medical emergency, while banning gender transition procedures for minors—will fail on the November 3, 2026 ballot. A February St. Louis University/YouGov poll of 900 likely voters showed only 47% support versus 40% opposition (12% undecided), falling short of the simple majority needed, amid lingering backing for the 2024 voter-approved reproductive freedom amendment. Strong opposition to gender-affirming care for minors (67% against medications, 73% against surgeries) provides a boost, but fails to offset resistance to the abortion restrictions. Recent House passage of a standalone permanent transgender care ban awaits Senate action, while Missouri Supreme Court upheld existing limits in January.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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「Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?」はPolymarket上の予測市場で、トレーダーがこのイベントが起こるかどうかに基づいて「はい」または「いいえ」のシェアを売買します。コミュニティによる現在の確率は「Yes」に対して16%です。例えば、「はい」が16¢で取引されている場合、市場はこのイベントが発生する確率を16%と集合的に評価しています。これらのオッズはトレーダーが新しい展開や情報に反応するにつれて継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

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「Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?」の現在の確率は「Yes」に対して16%です。これはPolymarketコミュニティがこのイベントの発生確率を16%と現在評価していることを意味します。これらのオッズは実際の取引に基づいてリアルタイムで更新され、市場の期待を継続的に反映するシグナルを提供します。

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