Mary Peltola holds a commanding position in the Alaska Senate race following the November 3 election, as ongoing ballot counts show her first-choice share rising to roughly 49 percent against incumbent Dan Sullivan’s 47 percent, with the remaining votes split among minor candidates including Gerald Heikes and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system will redistribute preferences from eliminated candidates once all early, absentee, and questioned ballots are tallied, a process expected to conclude by mid-November. Traders view these trends, combined with Peltola’s edge in recent drops from Democratic-leaning areas, as decisive. Remaining uncertainties include the final composition of uncounted ballots and any post-election legal challenges to tabulation or eligibility rules that could alter redistribution patterns.