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政治·デリバティブ

共和党の2026年下院のオッズは3月31日までに___に達しましたか？

Market icon
政治·デリバティブ

共和党の2026年下院のオッズは3月31日までに___に達しましたか？

Mar 31

Mar 31

Nov 3

Mar 31

Mar 31

Nov 3

$191,527 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$191,527 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ 60％

$0 Vol.

<1%

↑ 50％

$47,235 Vol.

1%

↑ 40％

$0 Vol.

<1%

↑ 30％

$68,592 Vol.

1%

↓ 10%

$30,849 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-house-election-republican-odds-over-60-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-house-election-republican-odds-over-50-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-house-election-republican-odds-over-40-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-house-election-republican-odds-over-30-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?) is priced under the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-house-election-republican-odds-under-10-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-house-election-republican-odds-over-25-by-march-31-2 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?) is priced under the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-house-election-republican-odds-under-15-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.Republicans' narrow 220-215 House majority after the 2024 elections faces headwinds for the 2026 midterms, where the president's party historically loses an average of 25 seats, driving trader consensus to price GOP retention around 50-55% on prediction markets. Speaker Mike Johnson's recent re-election by a single vote underscored internal divisions, exacerbated by fiscal cliff negotiations and a short-term continuing resolution averting a shutdown last month. Early generic ballot polls favor Democrats by 3-5 points, with initial Republican retirements in competitive districts adding pressure. No major developments in the past week, but upcoming special elections, debt ceiling talks, and 2025 redistricting litigation could shift odds before March 31.

Republicans' narrow 220-215 House majority after the 2024 elections faces headwinds for the 2026 midterms, where the president's party historically loses an average of 25 seats, driving trader consensus to price GOP retention around 50-55% on prediction markets. Speaker Mike Johnson's recent re-election by a single vote underscored internal divisions, exacerbated by fiscal cliff negotiations and a short-term continuing resolution averting a shutdown last month. Early generic ballot polls favor Democrats by 3-5 points, with initial Republican retirements in competitive districts adding pressure. No major developments in the past week, but upcoming special elections, debt ceiling talks, and 2025 redistricting litigation could shift odds before March 31.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-house-election-republican-odds-over-60-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-house-election-republican-odds-over-50-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-house-election-republican-odds-over-40-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-house-election-republican-odds-over-30-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?) is priced under the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-house-election-republican-odds-under-10-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-house-election-republican-odds-over-25-by-march-31-2 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?) is priced under the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-house-election-republican-odds-under-15-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.Republicans' narrow 220-215 House majority after the 2024 elections faces headwinds for the 2026 midterms, where the president's party historically loses an average of 25 seats, driving trader consensus to price GOP retention around 50-55% on prediction markets. Speaker Mike Johnson's recent re-election by a single vote underscored internal divisions, exacerbated by fiscal cliff negotiations and a short-term continuing resolution averting a shutdown last month. Early generic ballot polls favor Democrats by 3-5 points, with initial Republican retirements in competitive districts adding pressure. No major developments in the past week, but upcoming special elections, debt ceiling talks, and 2025 redistricting litigation could shift odds before March 31.

Republicans' narrow 220-215 House majority after the 2024 elections faces headwinds for the 2026 midterms, where the president's party historically loses an average of 25 seats, driving trader consensus to price GOP retention around 50-55% on prediction markets. Speaker Mike Johnson's recent re-election by a single vote underscored internal divisions, exacerbated by fiscal cliff negotiations and a short-term continuing resolution averting a shutdown last month. Early generic ballot polls favor Democrats by 3-5 points, with initial Republican retirements in competitive districts adding pressure. No major developments in the past week, but upcoming special elections, debt ceiling talks, and 2025 redistricting litigation could shift odds before March 31.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「共和党の2026年下院のオッズは3月31日までに___に達しましたか？」はPolymarket上の7個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「↑ 25％」で100%、次いで「↓ 15％」が100%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、100¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に100%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「共和党の2026年下院のオッズは3月31日までに___に達しましたか？」は$191.5Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Dec 4, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「共和党の2026年下院のオッズは3月31日までに___に達しましたか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている7個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「共和党の2026年下院のオッズは3月31日までに___に達しましたか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「↑ 25％」で100%であり、市場がこの結果に100%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「↓ 15％」で100%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「共和党の2026年下院のオッズは3月31日までに___に達しましたか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。