Analilia Mejia's commanding 97.4% implied probability in the NJ-11 special election stems from her overwhelming primary win and commanding leads in district polls, reflecting the reliably Democratic-leaning territory where the party routinely secures over 60% of the vote. Recent catalysts include strong fundraising totals exceeding $500,000, endorsements from Governor Murphy and congressional Democrats, and fragmented Republican support split between Joe Hathaway and Alan Bond. Trader consensus prices in minimal upset risk absent a black-swan event like a disqualifying scandal, abnormally high conservative turnout, or court-ordered delays before the July 15 contest.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日アナリリア・メヒア 96.5%
ジョー・ハサウェイ 2.1%
アラン・ボンド 1.9%
NEW
NEW
Apr 16, 2026
アナリリア・メヒア
97%
ジョー・ハサウェイ
2%
アラン・ボンド
2%
アナリリア・メヒア 96.5%
ジョー・ハサウェイ 2.1%
アラン・ボンド 1.9%
NEW
NEW
Apr 16, 2026
アナリリア・メヒア
$1,399 Vol.
97%
ジョー・ハサウェイ
$0 Vol.
2%
アラン・ボンド
$634 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
マーケット開始日： Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
音量
$2,033終了日
Apr 16, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
音量
$2,033終了日
Apr 16, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Analilia Mejia's commanding 97.4% implied probability in the NJ-11 special election stems from her overwhelming primary win and commanding leads in district polls, reflecting the reliably Democratic-leaning territory where the party routinely secures over 60% of the vote. Recent catalysts include strong fundraising totals exceeding $500,000, endorsements from Governor Murphy and congressional Democrats, and fragmented Republican support split between Joe Hathaway and Alan Bond. Trader consensus prices in minimal upset risk absent a black-swan event like a disqualifying scandal, abnormally high conservative turnout, or court-ordered delays before the July 15 contest.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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