Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem's March 25 speech rejecting disarmament and ceasefire talks with Israel underscores the group's defiance, driving trader skepticism on compliance by any near-term deadline. The Lebanese government outlawed Hezbollah's military wing in early March and authorized the army to enforce weapon surrender, claiming completion of the first disarmament phase in southern Lebanon in January, but Israeli officers accused the army of lying about dismantling infrastructure. Ongoing ceasefire violations, including alleged Hezbollah rearmament north of the Litani River under UN Resolution 1701, heighten tensions, with UNIFIL monitoring progress amid Iranian IRGC influence and potential Israeli airstrikes. No verified full disarmament has occurred, leaving resolution uncertain pending diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$857,224 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
3月31日
<1%
12月31日
30%
$857,224 Vol.
3月31日
$840,577 Vol.
<1%
12月31日
$16,647 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem's March 25 speech rejecting disarmament and ceasefire talks with Israel underscores the group's defiance, driving trader skepticism on compliance by any near-term deadline. The Lebanese government outlawed Hezbollah's military wing in early March and authorized the army to enforce weapon surrender, claiming completion of the first disarmament phase in southern Lebanon in January, but Israeli officers accused the army of lying about dismantling infrastructure. Ongoing ceasefire violations, including alleged Hezbollah rearmament north of the Litani River under UN Resolution 1701, heighten tensions, with UNIFIL monitoring progress amid Iranian IRGC influence and potential Israeli airstrikes. No verified full disarmament has occurred, leaving resolution uncertain pending diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
マーケット開始日： Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ET
音量
$857,224終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem's March 25 speech rejecting disarmament and ceasefire talks with Israel underscores the group's defiance, driving trader skepticism on compliance by any near-term deadline. The Lebanese government outlawed Hezbollah's military wing in early March and authorized the army to enforce weapon surrender, claiming completion of the first disarmament phase in southern Lebanon in January, but Israeli officers accused the army of lying about dismantling infrastructure. Ongoing ceasefire violations, including alleged Hezbollah rearmament north of the Litani River under UN Resolution 1701, heighten tensions, with UNIFIL monitoring progress amid Iranian IRGC influence and potential Israeli airstrikes. No verified full disarmament has occurred, leaving resolution uncertain pending diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
音量
$857,224終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem's March 25 speech rejecting disarmament and ceasefire talks with Israel underscores the group's defiance, driving trader skepticism on compliance by any near-term deadline. The Lebanese government outlawed Hezbollah's military wing in early March and authorized the army to enforce weapon surrender, claiming completion of the first disarmament phase in southern Lebanon in January, but Israeli officers accused the army of lying about dismantling infrastructure. Ongoing ceasefire violations, including alleged Hezbollah rearmament north of the Litani River under UN Resolution 1701, heighten tensions, with UNIFIL monitoring progress amid Iranian IRGC influence and potential Israeli airstrikes. No verified full disarmament has occurred, leaving resolution uncertain pending diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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