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政治·トランプ

トランプ大統領は2027年までに誰を恩赦するのか？

Market icon
政治·トランプ

トランプ大統領は2027年までに誰を恩赦するのか？

$133,211 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$133,211 Vol.

Polymarket

ドナルド・ブロディ

$0 Vol.

56%

ステファン・ブロディ

$0 Vol.

54%

ロジャー・ストーン

$0 Vol.

29%

マット・ゲーツ

$0 Vol.

42%

キオン・ロドリゲス

$0 Vol.

40%

ダニエル・ペニー

$0 Vol.

38%

ライアン・サラメ

$15,015 Vol.

26%

ヤング・サグ

$0 Vol.

31%

ロジャー・ヴェア

$0 Vol.

17%

ボブ・メネンデス

$0 Vol.

19%

スティーブ・バノン

$0 Vol.

17%

ジョー・エキゾチック

$0 Vol.

14%

マーティン・シュクレリ

$2,774 Vol.

12%

エリック・アダムズ

$0 Vol.

12%

ギレーヌ・マクスウェル

$9,382 Vol.

11%

ド・クォン

$14,965 Vol.

9%

ニコラス・マドゥロ

$5,256 Vol.

9%

サム・バンクマン＝フリード

$34,396 Vol.

8%

ディディ

$0 Vol.

8%

エリザベス・ホームズ

$0 Vol.

14%

イーロン・マスク

$48,180 Vol.

6%

エドワード・スノーデン

$1,742 Vol.

11%

アントワーヌ・マッシー

$0 Vol.

6%

デレク・ショーヴィン

$0 Vol.

5%

ジュリアン・アサンジ

$1,500 Vol.

11%

ハンター・バイデン

$0 Vol.

5%

本人

$0 Vol.

9%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President Trump's extensive use of executive clemency since his January 2025 inauguration—granting over 1,600 pardons and commutations, including mass relief for January 6 defendants, political allies like Rudy Giuliani and Mark Meadows, and crypto figures such as Ross Ulbricht and Binance founder Changpeng Zhao—has fueled trader consensus favoring additional high-profile pardons before the December 31, 2026 cutoff. Leading implied probabilities center on billionaire brothers Donald and Stefan Brodie (around 55-56%), convicted in environmental crimes but active Trump donors who recently funded White House events and previously sought clemency. Recent January 2026 batches and March criticism over fraudster pardons underscore the pattern, with no fixed schedule but potential for spontaneous announcements amid ongoing lobbying.

President Trump's extensive use of executive clemency since his January 2025 inauguration—granting over 1,600 pardons and commutations, including mass relief for January 6 defendants, political allies like Rudy Giuliani and Mark Meadows, and crypto figures such as Ross Ulbricht and Binance founder Changpeng Zhao—has fueled trader consensus favoring additional high-profile pardons before the December 31, 2026 cutoff. Leading implied probabilities center on billionaire brothers Donald and Stefan Brodie (around 55-56%), convicted in environmental crimes but active Trump donors who recently funded White House events and previously sought clemency. Recent January 2026 batches and March criticism over fraudster pardons underscore the pattern, with no fixed schedule but potential for spontaneous announcements amid ongoing lobbying.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President Trump's extensive use of executive clemency since his January 2025 inauguration—granting over 1,600 pardons and commutations, including mass relief for January 6 defendants, political allies like Rudy Giuliani and Mark Meadows, and crypto figures such as Ross Ulbricht and Binance founder Changpeng Zhao—has fueled trader consensus favoring additional high-profile pardons before the December 31, 2026 cutoff. Leading implied probabilities center on billionaire brothers Donald and Stefan Brodie (around 55-56%), convicted in environmental crimes but active Trump donors who recently funded White House events and previously sought clemency. Recent January 2026 batches and March criticism over fraudster pardons underscore the pattern, with no fixed schedule but potential for spontaneous announcements amid ongoing lobbying.

President Trump's extensive use of executive clemency since his January 2025 inauguration—granting over 1,600 pardons and commutations, including mass relief for January 6 defendants, political allies like Rudy Giuliani and Mark Meadows, and crypto figures such as Ross Ulbricht and Binance founder Changpeng Zhao—has fueled trader consensus favoring additional high-profile pardons before the December 31, 2026 cutoff. Leading implied probabilities center on billionaire brothers Donald and Stefan Brodie (around 55-56%), convicted in environmental crimes but active Trump donors who recently funded White House events and previously sought clemency. Recent January 2026 batches and March criticism over fraudster pardons underscore the pattern, with no fixed schedule but potential for spontaneous announcements amid ongoing lobbying.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「トランプ大統領は2027年までに誰を恩赦するのか？」はPolymarket上の27個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「ドナルド・ブロディ」で56%、次いで「ステファン・ブロディ」が54%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、56¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に56%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「トランプ大統領は2027年までに誰を恩赦するのか？」は$133.2Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Nov 18, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「トランプ大統領は2027年までに誰を恩赦するのか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている27個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「トランプ大統領は2027年までに誰を恩赦するのか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「ドナルド・ブロディ」で56%であり、市場がこの結果に56%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「ステファン・ブロディ」で54%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「トランプ大統領は2027年までに誰を恩赦するのか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。