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選挙·トランプ

NY -12民主党予備選挙優勝者

Market icon
選挙·トランプ

NY -12民主党予備選挙優勝者

マイカ・ラッシャー 45%

アレックス・ボアーズ 31%

ジャック・シュロスバーグ 19%

ジョージ・コンウェイ 2.9%

Polymarket

$104,962 Vol.

マイカ・ラッシャー 45%

アレックス・ボアーズ 31%

ジャック・シュロスバーグ 19%

ジョージ・コンウェイ 2.9%

Polymarket

$104,962 Vol.

マイカ・ラッシャー

$4,526 Vol.

45%

アレックス・ボアーズ

$2,877 Vol.

31%

ジャック・シュロスバーグ

$5,663 Vol.

19%

ジョージ・コンウェイ

$1,409 Vol.

3%

エリック・ボッチャー

$1,823 Vol.

2%

リズ・クルーガー

$36,794 Vol.

1%

ジュリー・メニン

$22,807 Vol.

1%

キャメロン・カスキー

$2,303 Vol.

1%

リナ・カーン

$1,801 Vol.

1%

アンドリュー・クオモ

$1,559 Vol.

<1%

ブラッド・ホイルマン＝シガル

$4,664 Vol.

<1%

キース・パワーズ

$2,473 Vol.

<1%

ゲイル・ブルーワー

$1,244 Vol.

<1%

キャロリン・マロニー

$1,789 Vol.

<1%

ブラッド・ランダー

$1,255 Vol.

<1%

チェルシー・クリントン

$6,916 Vol.

<1%

リアム・エルキンド

$1,454 Vol.

<1%

スコット・ストリンガー

$1,964 Vol.

<1%

シンシア・ニクソン

$1,641 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In the crowded NY-12 Democratic primary to replace retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler, trader consensus favors Assemblyman Micah Lasher at 45% implied probability, propelled by former Mayor Michael Bloomberg's March 12 endorsement—backed by up to $5 million in super PAC spending, including over $780,000 from Stand For New York PAC in late March and early April—and Nadler's early backing. Assemblyman Alex Bores holds second at 30.5% on strength from progressive support and a March Public Policy poll lead (20%), while Jack Schlossberg trails at 18% buoyed by Kennedy family name recognition despite a fading early poll edge. Early surveys depict a fluid contest among these three, with the June 23 primary hinging on turnout in Manhattan's Upper East and West Sides, fundraising disparities, and potential attack ads amid attack pieces questioning Lasher's past roles in stop-and-frisk defense and campaign tactics.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$104,962
終了日
2026/06/23
マーケット開始日
Nov 21, 2025, 10:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In the crowded NY-12 Democratic primary to replace retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler, trader consensus favors Assemblyman Micah Lasher at 45% implied probability, propelled by former Mayor Michael Bloomberg's March 12 endorsement—backed by up to $5 million in super PAC spending, including over $780,000 from Stand For New York PAC in late March and early April—and Nadler's early backing. Assemblyman Alex Bores holds second at 30.5% on strength from progressive support and a March Public Policy poll lead (20%), while Jack Schlossberg trails at 18% buoyed by Kennedy family name recognition despite a fading early poll edge. Early surveys depict a fluid contest among these three, with the June 23 primary hinging on turnout in Manhattan's Upper East and West Sides, fundraising disparities, and potential attack ads amid attack pieces questioning Lasher's past roles in stop-and-frisk defense and campaign tactics.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$104,962
終了日
2026/06/23
マーケット開始日
Nov 21, 2025, 10:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「NY -12民主党予備選挙優勝者」はPolymarket上の19個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「マイカ・ラッシャー」で45%、次いで「アレックス・ボアーズ」が31%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、45¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に45%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「NY -12民主党予備選挙優勝者」は$105Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Nov 21, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「NY -12民主党予備選挙優勝者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている19個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「NY -12民主党予備選挙優勝者」の現在のフロントランナーは「マイカ・ラッシャー」で45%であり、市場がこの結果に45%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「アレックス・ボアーズ」で31%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「NY -12民主党予備選挙優勝者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。