Incumbent Sen. Mark Warner commands 99% trader consensus as the presumptive Democratic nominee for Virginia's U.S. Senate primary on August 4, following the April 2 filing deadline where he was the only candidate to submit sufficient verified signatures—over 18,000—for ballot access. His early campaign launch in March, bolstered by strong incumbency advantages, fundraising dominance, and party backing, deterred serious challengers despite earlier interest from progressive Jason Reynolds. Traders price Reynolds at under 1% due to his failure to qualify, reflecting high barriers like signature thresholds. Realistic shifts would require Warner's disqualification via legal challenge or an improbable write-in surge, though historical primary precedents favor unopposed incumbents.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$16,849 Vol.
$16,849 Vol.
マーク・ワーナー
99%
ジェイソン・レイノルズ
1%
$16,849 Vol.
$16,849 Vol.
マーク・ワーナー
99%
ジェイソン・レイノルズ
1%
If no 2026 Virginia Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
マーケット開始日: Dec 2, 2025, 4:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 Virginia Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sen. Mark Warner commands 99% trader consensus as the presumptive Democratic nominee for Virginia's U.S. Senate primary on August 4, following the April 2 filing deadline where he was the only candidate to submit sufficient verified signatures—over 18,000—for ballot access. His early campaign launch in March, bolstered by strong incumbency advantages, fundraising dominance, and party backing, deterred serious challengers despite earlier interest from progressive Jason Reynolds. Traders price Reynolds at under 1% due to his failure to qualify, reflecting high barriers like signature thresholds. Realistic shifts would require Warner's disqualification via legal challenge or an improbable write-in surge, though historical primary precedents favor unopposed incumbents.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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