Trader consensus reflects near-certainty of no coup attempt in Venezuela by March 31, driven by the absence of military unrest or opposition mobilization since the U.S. military intervention captured Nicolás Maduro on January 3. Ongoing purges of Maduro loyalists in the armed forces and recent merit-based appointments to key roles like Attorney General signal efforts to consolidate a post-Maduro transition under interim leadership, including figures like Delcy Rodríguez and Diosdado Cabello cooperating with U.S. oversight. With just days remaining before resolution and no verifiable reports of troop movements, defections, or rebel plotting in the past month, odds imply stability prevails; only an abrupt internal factional revolt or assassination could shift dynamics, though structural controls make this improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$51,781 Vol.
$51,781 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
はい
$51,781 Vol.
$51,781 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Venezuela at any point between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Venezuelan government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Venezuelan government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty of no coup attempt in Venezuela by March 31, driven by the absence of military unrest or opposition mobilization since the U.S. military intervention captured Nicolás Maduro on January 3. Ongoing purges of Maduro loyalists in the armed forces and recent merit-based appointments to key roles like Attorney General signal efforts to consolidate a post-Maduro transition under interim leadership, including figures like Delcy Rodríguez and Diosdado Cabello cooperating with U.S. oversight. With just days remaining before resolution and no verifiable reports of troop movements, defections, or rebel plotting in the past month, odds imply stability prevails; only an abrupt internal factional revolt or assassination could shift dynamics, though structural controls make this improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Venezuela at any point between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Venezuelan government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Venezuelan government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Venezuelan government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Venezuelan government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
音量
$51,781終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Venezuela at any point between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Venezuelan government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Venezuelan government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty of no coup attempt in Venezuela by March 31, driven by the absence of military unrest or opposition mobilization since the U.S. military intervention captured Nicolás Maduro on January 3. Ongoing purges of Maduro loyalists in the armed forces and recent merit-based appointments to key roles like Attorney General signal efforts to consolidate a post-Maduro transition under interim leadership, including figures like Delcy Rodríguez and Diosdado Cabello cooperating with U.S. oversight. With just days remaining before resolution and no verifiable reports of troop movements, defections, or rebel plotting in the past month, odds imply stability prevails; only an abrupt internal factional revolt or assassination could shift dynamics, though structural controls make this improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Venezuela at any point between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Venezuelan government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Venezuelan government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Venezuelan government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Venezuelan government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$51,781終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty of no coup attempt in Venezuela by March 31, driven by the absence of military unrest or opposition mobilization since the U.S. military intervention captured Nicolás Maduro on January 3. Ongoing purges of Maduro loyalists in the armed forces and recent merit-based appointments to key roles like Attorney General signal efforts to consolidate a post-Maduro transition under interim leadership, including figures like Delcy Rodríguez and Diosdado Cabello cooperating with U.S. oversight. With just days remaining before resolution and no verifiable reports of troop movements, defections, or rebel plotting in the past month, odds imply stability prevails; only an abrupt internal factional revolt or assassination could shift dynamics, though structural controls make this improbable.
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