Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley's commanding fundraising advantage over Republican challenger State Sen. Peter Oberacker has solidified trader consensus favoring Democrats at 68.5% implied probability to retain New York's competitive 19th Congressional District. Riley, who narrowly flipped the battleground seat in 2024, reported significantly higher contributions as of early February 2026, enhancing his incumbency edge ahead of the June 23 primaries. Oberacker, who launched his bid last fall, secured Trump endorsement and county GOP committee backing in February but faces an uphill path without a rematch against prior holder Marc Molinaro, now pursuing state Assembly. Absent recent polls, national midterm dynamics and upcoming primaries could shift odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
69%
共和党
30%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
$224 Vol.
69%
共和党
$0 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley's commanding fundraising advantage over Republican challenger State Sen. Peter Oberacker has solidified trader consensus favoring Democrats at 68.5% implied probability to retain New York's competitive 19th Congressional District. Riley, who narrowly flipped the battleground seat in 2024, reported significantly higher contributions as of early February 2026, enhancing his incumbency edge ahead of the June 23 primaries. Oberacker, who launched his bid last fall, secured Trump endorsement and county GOP committee backing in February but faces an uphill path without a rematch against prior holder Marc Molinaro, now pursuing state Assembly. Absent recent polls, national midterm dynamics and upcoming primaries could shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
音量
$224終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley's commanding fundraising advantage over Republican challenger State Sen. Peter Oberacker has solidified trader consensus favoring Democrats at 68.5% implied probability to retain New York's competitive 19th Congressional District. Riley, who narrowly flipped the battleground seat in 2024, reported significantly higher contributions as of early February 2026, enhancing his incumbency edge ahead of the June 23 primaries. Oberacker, who launched his bid last fall, secured Trump endorsement and county GOP committee backing in February but faces an uphill path without a rematch against prior holder Marc Molinaro, now pursuing state Assembly. Absent recent polls, national midterm dynamics and upcoming primaries could shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$224終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley's commanding fundraising advantage over Republican challenger State Sen. Peter Oberacker has solidified trader consensus favoring Democrats at 68.5% implied probability to retain New York's competitive 19th Congressional District. Riley, who narrowly flipped the battleground seat in 2024, reported significantly higher contributions as of early February 2026, enhancing his incumbency edge ahead of the June 23 primaries. Oberacker, who launched his bid last fall, secured Trump endorsement and county GOP committee backing in February but faces an uphill path without a rematch against prior holder Marc Molinaro, now pursuing state Assembly. Absent recent polls, national midterm dynamics and upcoming primaries could shift odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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