New York's 7th congressional district, with its Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+25 and history of Democratic general election margins exceeding 77% in recent cycles including 2024, underpins trader consensus assigning 93.5% implied probability to a Democratic House winner despite incumbent Nydia Velázquez's November 2025 retirement announcement creating an open seat. The crowded June 23 Democratic primary—featuring candidates like Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso and councilmember Julie Won, with recent endorsements from retiring Velázquez, Rep. Pat Ryan, and Bernie Sanders for Claire Valdez—remains the focal contest, while no Republican primary candidates have filed, signaling minimal GOP competitiveness. Forecasters rate it Solid Democratic. A Republican upset would require an unforeseen national wave, Democratic nominee scandal post-primary, or depressed turnout among key urban and Hispanic voting blocs.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$0 Vol.
94%
共和党
$4,966 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York's 7th congressional district, with its Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+25 and history of Democratic general election margins exceeding 77% in recent cycles including 2024, underpins trader consensus assigning 93.5% implied probability to a Democratic House winner despite incumbent Nydia Velázquez's November 2025 retirement announcement creating an open seat. The crowded June 23 Democratic primary—featuring candidates like Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso and councilmember Julie Won, with recent endorsements from retiring Velázquez, Rep. Pat Ryan, and Bernie Sanders for Claire Valdez—remains the focal contest, while no Republican primary candidates have filed, signaling minimal GOP competitiveness. Forecasters rate it Solid Democratic. A Republican upset would require an unforeseen national wave, Democratic nominee scandal post-primary, or depressed turnout among key urban and Hispanic voting blocs.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
音量
$4,966終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York's 7th congressional district, with its Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+25 and history of Democratic general election margins exceeding 77% in recent cycles including 2024, underpins trader consensus assigning 93.5% implied probability to a Democratic House winner despite incumbent Nydia Velázquez's November 2025 retirement announcement creating an open seat. The crowded June 23 Democratic primary—featuring candidates like Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso and councilmember Julie Won, with recent endorsements from retiring Velázquez, Rep. Pat Ryan, and Bernie Sanders for Claire Valdez—remains the focal contest, while no Republican primary candidates have filed, signaling minimal GOP competitiveness. Forecasters rate it Solid Democratic. A Republican upset would require an unforeseen national wave, Democratic nominee scandal post-primary, or depressed turnout among key urban and Hispanic voting blocs.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$4,966終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York's 7th congressional district, with its Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+25 and history of Democratic general election margins exceeding 77% in recent cycles including 2024, underpins trader consensus assigning 93.5% implied probability to a Democratic House winner despite incumbent Nydia Velázquez's November 2025 retirement announcement creating an open seat. The crowded June 23 Democratic primary—featuring candidates like Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso and councilmember Julie Won, with recent endorsements from retiring Velázquez, Rep. Pat Ryan, and Bernie Sanders for Claire Valdez—remains the focal contest, while no Republican primary candidates have filed, signaling minimal GOP competitiveness. Forecasters rate it Solid Democratic. A Republican upset would require an unforeseen national wave, Democratic nominee scandal post-primary, or depressed turnout among key urban and Hispanic voting blocs.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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