Incumbent Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R) faces vulnerability in New Jersey's 7th Congressional District, per a March 2026 House Majority Forward poll showing his favorability at 20% versus 43% unfavorable, alongside President Trump's 40% favorable and 54% unfavorable ratings locally. This reflects the district's leftward shift and national midterm headwinds for the GOP majority, boosting trader consensus toward a Democratic flip at 74% implied probability. A crowded Democratic primary on June 2 features eight candidates including Rebecca Bennett and Tina Shah, with a February internal poll indicating 64% undecided voters and potential for a stronger nominee. Republican registration holds a slim edge, but recent filings and debates underscore competitiveness ahead of the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
74%
共和党
35%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
$138 Vol.
74%
共和党
$3,668 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R) faces vulnerability in New Jersey's 7th Congressional District, per a March 2026 House Majority Forward poll showing his favorability at 20% versus 43% unfavorable, alongside President Trump's 40% favorable and 54% unfavorable ratings locally. This reflects the district's leftward shift and national midterm headwinds for the GOP majority, boosting trader consensus toward a Democratic flip at 74% implied probability. A crowded Democratic primary on June 2 features eight candidates including Rebecca Bennett and Tina Shah, with a February internal poll indicating 64% undecided voters and potential for a stronger nominee. Republican registration holds a slim edge, but recent filings and debates underscore competitiveness ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
音量
$3,806終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R) faces vulnerability in New Jersey's 7th Congressional District, per a March 2026 House Majority Forward poll showing his favorability at 20% versus 43% unfavorable, alongside President Trump's 40% favorable and 54% unfavorable ratings locally. This reflects the district's leftward shift and national midterm headwinds for the GOP majority, boosting trader consensus toward a Democratic flip at 74% implied probability. A crowded Democratic primary on June 2 features eight candidates including Rebecca Bennett and Tina Shah, with a February internal poll indicating 64% undecided voters and potential for a stronger nominee. Republican registration holds a slim edge, but recent filings and debates underscore competitiveness ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$3,806終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R) faces vulnerability in New Jersey's 7th Congressional District, per a March 2026 House Majority Forward poll showing his favorability at 20% versus 43% unfavorable, alongside President Trump's 40% favorable and 54% unfavorable ratings locally. This reflects the district's leftward shift and national midterm headwinds for the GOP majority, boosting trader consensus toward a Democratic flip at 74% implied probability. A crowded Democratic primary on June 2 features eight candidates including Rebecca Bennett and Tina Shah, with a February internal poll indicating 64% undecided voters and potential for a stronger nominee. Republican registration holds a slim edge, but recent filings and debates underscore competitiveness ahead of the November general election.
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