Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Democratic Party at 71.5% implied probability to win New Jersey's 7th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's even partisan balance (PVI D+0) and long-term leftward shift amid national midterm headwinds for Republican incumbent Tom Kean Jr., who prevailed by narrow margins in 2022 and 2024. Recent developments bolstering this positioning include the Democratic primary field narrowing to four well-funded contenders—Rebecca Bennett, Tina Shah, Brian Varela, and Michael Roth—after Megan O'Rourke and Beth Adubato exited on March 23, enabling potential consolidation behind a stronger nominee ahead of the June 2 primary. Cook Political Report's November shift to Toss Up underscores a tougher environment for Kean, exacerbated by local backlash to Trump administration actions like an immigration detention warehouse purchase, while competitive Democratic fundraising closes the gap with Kean's cash advantage.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
72%
共和党
29%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
$138 Vol.
72%
共和党
$3,668 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Democratic Party at 71.5% implied probability to win New Jersey's 7th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's even partisan balance (PVI D+0) and long-term leftward shift amid national midterm headwinds for Republican incumbent Tom Kean Jr., who prevailed by narrow margins in 2022 and 2024. Recent developments bolstering this positioning include the Democratic primary field narrowing to four well-funded contenders—Rebecca Bennett, Tina Shah, Brian Varela, and Michael Roth—after Megan O'Rourke and Beth Adubato exited on March 23, enabling potential consolidation behind a stronger nominee ahead of the June 2 primary. Cook Political Report's November shift to Toss Up underscores a tougher environment for Kean, exacerbated by local backlash to Trump administration actions like an immigration detention warehouse purchase, while competitive Democratic fundraising closes the gap with Kean's cash advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
音量
$3,806終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Democratic Party at 71.5% implied probability to win New Jersey's 7th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's even partisan balance (PVI D+0) and long-term leftward shift amid national midterm headwinds for Republican incumbent Tom Kean Jr., who prevailed by narrow margins in 2022 and 2024. Recent developments bolstering this positioning include the Democratic primary field narrowing to four well-funded contenders—Rebecca Bennett, Tina Shah, Brian Varela, and Michael Roth—after Megan O'Rourke and Beth Adubato exited on March 23, enabling potential consolidation behind a stronger nominee ahead of the June 2 primary. Cook Political Report's November shift to Toss Up underscores a tougher environment for Kean, exacerbated by local backlash to Trump administration actions like an immigration detention warehouse purchase, while competitive Democratic fundraising closes the gap with Kean's cash advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$3,806終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Democratic Party at 71.5% implied probability to win New Jersey's 7th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's even partisan balance (PVI D+0) and long-term leftward shift amid national midterm headwinds for Republican incumbent Tom Kean Jr., who prevailed by narrow margins in 2022 and 2024. Recent developments bolstering this positioning include the Democratic primary field narrowing to four well-funded contenders—Rebecca Bennett, Tina Shah, Brian Varela, and Michael Roth—after Megan O'Rourke and Beth Adubato exited on March 23, enabling potential consolidation behind a stronger nominee ahead of the June 2 primary. Cook Political Report's November shift to Toss Up underscores a tougher environment for Kean, exacerbated by local backlash to Trump administration actions like an immigration detention warehouse purchase, while competitive Democratic fundraising closes the gap with Kean's cash advantage.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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