Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján's commanding position in the New Mexico Senate race stems from Republicans' failure to qualify any candidate for the November 3 general election ballot, following disqualifications in February 2026 for insufficient voter signatures. State election officials confirmed qualifications on March 25, leaving Luján, who announced his re-election bid earlier, facing only a minor Democratic primary challenger, Matt Dodson, on June 2. New Mexico's Democratic lean—evident in recent presidential margins and unified state government—amplifies this edge, with trader consensus implying near-certainty for the Democratic nominee. Realistic challenges include a surprise Luján primary loss or an unprecedentedly successful Republican write-in campaign, though historical precedents show write-ins rarely overcome such barriers absent scandals or health issues.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$10,972 Vol.
$10,972 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
96%
共和党
2%
$10,972 Vol.
$10,972 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$7,057 Vol.
96%
共和党
$3,914 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján's commanding position in the New Mexico Senate race stems from Republicans' failure to qualify any candidate for the November 3 general election ballot, following disqualifications in February 2026 for insufficient voter signatures. State election officials confirmed qualifications on March 25, leaving Luján, who announced his re-election bid earlier, facing only a minor Democratic primary challenger, Matt Dodson, on June 2. New Mexico's Democratic lean—evident in recent presidential margins and unified state government—amplifies this edge, with trader consensus implying near-certainty for the Democratic nominee. Realistic challenges include a surprise Luján primary loss or an unprecedentedly successful Republican write-in campaign, though historical precedents show write-ins rarely overcome such barriers absent scandals or health issues.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
音量
$10,972終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján's commanding position in the New Mexico Senate race stems from Republicans' failure to qualify any candidate for the November 3 general election ballot, following disqualifications in February 2026 for insufficient voter signatures. State election officials confirmed qualifications on March 25, leaving Luján, who announced his re-election bid earlier, facing only a minor Democratic primary challenger, Matt Dodson, on June 2. New Mexico's Democratic lean—evident in recent presidential margins and unified state government—amplifies this edge, with trader consensus implying near-certainty for the Democratic nominee. Realistic challenges include a surprise Luján primary loss or an unprecedentedly successful Republican write-in campaign, though historical precedents show write-ins rarely overcome such barriers absent scandals or health issues.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$10,972終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján's commanding position in the New Mexico Senate race stems from Republicans' failure to qualify any candidate for the November 3 general election ballot, following disqualifications in February 2026 for insufficient voter signatures. State election officials confirmed qualifications on March 25, leaving Luján, who announced his re-election bid earlier, facing only a minor Democratic primary challenger, Matt Dodson, on June 2. New Mexico's Democratic lean—evident in recent presidential margins and unified state government—amplifies this edge, with trader consensus implying near-certainty for the Democratic nominee. Realistic challenges include a surprise Luján primary loss or an unprecedentedly successful Republican write-in campaign, though historical precedents show write-ins rarely overcome such barriers absent scandals or health issues.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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