Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican nominee at 95.5% implied probability for South Dakota's 2026 gubernatorial election, reflecting the state's entrenched Republican dominance—marked by GOP supermajorities in the legislature, consistent landslide presidential margins for Republicans, and no Democratic governor since 1974. Incumbent Governor Larry Rhoden assumed office after Kristi Noem's 2025 resignation to join the Trump administration as DHS Secretary, but recent March polls show U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson leading a crowded GOP primary field (28-33% support) over Rhoden, Toby Doeden, and Jon Hansen amid debates over property tax reforms. Democrats' Dan Ahlers and Robert Arnold face steep uphill paths, with independents unlikely to consolidate opposition. Scenarios challenging this include a major GOP nominee scandal post-June 2 primary or unprecedented national Democratic turnout surge, though structural barriers remain formidable ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
96%
民主党
5%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$0 Vol.
96%
民主党
$2,444 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican nominee at 95.5% implied probability for South Dakota's 2026 gubernatorial election, reflecting the state's entrenched Republican dominance—marked by GOP supermajorities in the legislature, consistent landslide presidential margins for Republicans, and no Democratic governor since 1974. Incumbent Governor Larry Rhoden assumed office after Kristi Noem's 2025 resignation to join the Trump administration as DHS Secretary, but recent March polls show U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson leading a crowded GOP primary field (28-33% support) over Rhoden, Toby Doeden, and Jon Hansen amid debates over property tax reforms. Democrats' Dan Ahlers and Robert Arnold face steep uphill paths, with independents unlikely to consolidate opposition. Scenarios challenging this include a major GOP nominee scandal post-June 2 primary or unprecedented national Democratic turnout surge, though structural barriers remain formidable ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
音量
$2,444終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican nominee at 95.5% implied probability for South Dakota's 2026 gubernatorial election, reflecting the state's entrenched Republican dominance—marked by GOP supermajorities in the legislature, consistent landslide presidential margins for Republicans, and no Democratic governor since 1974. Incumbent Governor Larry Rhoden assumed office after Kristi Noem's 2025 resignation to join the Trump administration as DHS Secretary, but recent March polls show U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson leading a crowded GOP primary field (28-33% support) over Rhoden, Toby Doeden, and Jon Hansen amid debates over property tax reforms. Democrats' Dan Ahlers and Robert Arnold face steep uphill paths, with independents unlikely to consolidate opposition. Scenarios challenging this include a major GOP nominee scandal post-June 2 primary or unprecedented national Democratic turnout surge, though structural barriers remain formidable ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$2,444終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican nominee at 95.5% implied probability for South Dakota's 2026 gubernatorial election, reflecting the state's entrenched Republican dominance—marked by GOP supermajorities in the legislature, consistent landslide presidential margins for Republicans, and no Democratic governor since 1974. Incumbent Governor Larry Rhoden assumed office after Kristi Noem's 2025 resignation to join the Trump administration as DHS Secretary, but recent March polls show U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson leading a crowded GOP primary field (28-33% support) over Rhoden, Toby Doeden, and Jon Hansen amid debates over property tax reforms. Democrats' Dan Ahlers and Robert Arnold face steep uphill paths, with independents unlikely to consolidate opposition. Scenarios challenging this include a major GOP nominee scandal post-June 2 primary or unprecedented national Democratic turnout surge, though structural barriers remain formidable ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問