Polymarket traders price an 86% implied probability against removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30, driven by the Trump administration's March 18 announcement of a limited 60-day waiver amid Middle East supply disruptions from Iran tensions, offering temporary cabotage relief for energy and fertilizer shipments without signaling permanent repeal. This action highlights the law's political resilience, backed by powerful maritime unions, shipbuilders, and coastal state interests that have thwarted reform efforts historically. Legislative pushes like H.R. 665, introduced January 2025 to ease noncontiguous trade rules, remain stalled in early committee stages, with no fast-track momentum. Key catalysts include the waiver's mid-May expiration and potential congressional hearings, but trader consensus sees formidable barriers to outright elimination.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$47,622 Vol.
$47,622 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
はい
$47,622 Vol.
$47,622 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders price an 86% implied probability against removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30, driven by the Trump administration's March 18 announcement of a limited 60-day waiver amid Middle East supply disruptions from Iran tensions, offering temporary cabotage relief for energy and fertilizer shipments without signaling permanent repeal. This action highlights the law's political resilience, backed by powerful maritime unions, shipbuilders, and coastal state interests that have thwarted reform efforts historically. Legislative pushes like H.R. 665, introduced January 2025 to ease noncontiguous trade rules, remain stalled in early committee stages, with no fast-track momentum. Key catalysts include the waiver's mid-May expiration and potential congressional hearings, but trader consensus sees formidable barriers to outright elimination.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
音量
$47,622終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders price an 86% implied probability against removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30, driven by the Trump administration's March 18 announcement of a limited 60-day waiver amid Middle East supply disruptions from Iran tensions, offering temporary cabotage relief for energy and fertilizer shipments without signaling permanent repeal. This action highlights the law's political resilience, backed by powerful maritime unions, shipbuilders, and coastal state interests that have thwarted reform efforts historically. Legislative pushes like H.R. 665, introduced January 2025 to ease noncontiguous trade rules, remain stalled in early committee stages, with no fast-track momentum. Key catalysts include the waiver's mid-May expiration and potential congressional hearings, but trader consensus sees formidable barriers to outright elimination.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$47,622終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price an 86% implied probability against removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30, driven by the Trump administration's March 18 announcement of a limited 60-day waiver amid Middle East supply disruptions from Iran tensions, offering temporary cabotage relief for energy and fertilizer shipments without signaling permanent repeal. This action highlights the law's political resilience, backed by powerful maritime unions, shipbuilders, and coastal state interests that have thwarted reform efforts historically. Legislative pushes like H.R. 665, introduced January 2025 to ease noncontiguous trade rules, remain stalled in early committee stages, with no fast-track momentum. Key catalysts include the waiver's mid-May expiration and potential congressional hearings, but trader consensus sees formidable barriers to outright elimination.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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