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政治·世界選挙

ハンガリー議会選挙の勝者

Market icon
政治·世界選挙

ハンガリー議会選挙の勝者

TISZA 67%

フィデス＝KDNP 34%

モメンタム <1%

DK <1%

Polymarket

$49,035,364 Vol.

TISZA 67%

フィデス＝KDNP 34%

モメンタム <1%

DK <1%

Polymarket

$49,035,364 Vol.

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TISZA

$873,559 Vol.

67%

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フィデス＝KDNP

$1,148,776 Vol.

34%

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モメンタム

$603,692 Vol.

<1%

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DK

$4,876,095 Vol.

<1%

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LMP

$14,325,703 Vol.

<1%

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MSZP

$456,332 Vol.

<1%

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我が祖国運動（Mi Hazánk）

$475,211 Vol.

<1%

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パールベサード

$7,088,495 Vol.

<1%

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ヨッビク

$14,796,693 Vol.

<1%

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KDNP

$4,390,807 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).With the April 12 parliamentary election two weeks away, trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors TISZA at 66.5% implied probability, reflecting recent polls like Median's March 25 survey showing the party leading 58% to Fidesz-KDNP's 35% among decided voters—a widening gap from prior readings. Péter Magyar's TISZA has sustained momentum from unifying fragmented opposition support, bolstered by a massive March 15 rally drawing hundreds of thousands amid voter fatigue with Viktor Orbán's 16-year incumbent rule. Fidesz trails at 33.5% as undecided voters decline and tilt toward the challenger, though Hungary's mixed system of single-member districts and proportional representation leaves room for turnout swings or late scandals to shift seat counts toward a potential Tisza majority.

With the April 12 parliamentary election two weeks away, trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors TISZA at 66.5% implied probability, reflecting recent polls like Median's March 25 survey showing the party leading 58% to Fidesz-KDNP's 35% among decided voters—a widening gap from prior readings. Péter Magyar's TISZA has sustained momentum from unifying fragmented opposition support, bolstered by a massive March 15 rally drawing hundreds of thousands amid voter fatigue with Viktor Orbán's 16-year incumbent rule. Fidesz trails at 33.5% as undecided voters decline and tilt toward the challenger, though Hungary's mixed system of single-member districts and proportional representation leaves room for turnout swings or late scandals to shift seat counts toward a potential Tisza majority.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).With the April 12 parliamentary election two weeks away, trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors TISZA at 66.5% implied probability, reflecting recent polls like Median's March 25 survey showing the party leading 58% to Fidesz-KDNP's 35% among decided voters—a widening gap from prior readings. Péter Magyar's TISZA has sustained momentum from unifying fragmented opposition support, bolstered by a massive March 15 rally drawing hundreds of thousands amid voter fatigue with Viktor Orbán's 16-year incumbent rule. Fidesz trails at 33.5% as undecided voters decline and tilt toward the challenger, though Hungary's mixed system of single-member districts and proportional representation leaves room for turnout swings or late scandals to shift seat counts toward a potential Tisza majority.

With the April 12 parliamentary election two weeks away, trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors TISZA at 66.5% implied probability, reflecting recent polls like Median's March 25 survey showing the party leading 58% to Fidesz-KDNP's 35% among decided voters—a widening gap from prior readings. Péter Magyar's TISZA has sustained momentum from unifying fragmented opposition support, bolstered by a massive March 15 rally drawing hundreds of thousands amid voter fatigue with Viktor Orbán's 16-year incumbent rule. Fidesz trails at 33.5% as undecided voters decline and tilt toward the challenger, though Hungary's mixed system of single-member districts and proportional representation leaves room for turnout swings or late scandals to shift seat counts toward a potential Tisza majority.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「ハンガリー議会選挙の勝者」はPolymarket上の10個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「TISZA」で67%、次いで「フィデス＝KDNP」が34%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、67¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に67%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「ハンガリー議会選挙の勝者」は$49 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Dec 16, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「ハンガリー議会選挙の勝者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている10個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「ハンガリー議会選挙の勝者」の現在のフロントランナーは「TISZA」で67%であり、市場がこの結果に67%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「フィデス＝KDNP」で34%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「ハンガリー議会選挙の勝者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。