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選挙·世界選挙

ダブリン中央補欠選挙の勝者

Market icon
選挙·世界選挙

ダブリン中央補欠選挙の勝者

ダニエル・エニス 76%

ジャニス・ボイラン 15.4%

ゲリー・ハッチ 4.2%

ギリアン・シェラット 1.6%

Polymarket

$644,647 Vol.

ダニエル・エニス 76%

ジャニス・ボイラン 15.4%

ゲリー・ハッチ 4.2%

ギリアン・シェラット 1.6%

Polymarket

$644,647 Vol.

ダニエル・エニス

$8,102 Vol.

76%

ジャニス・ボイラン

$3,821 Vol.

15%

ゲリー・ハッチ

$453,181 Vol.

4%

ギリアン・シェラット

$115,887 Vol.

2%

ジャネット・ホーナー

$2,004 Vol.

1%

マラキー・スティーソン

$10,653 Vol.

1%

ジョン・スティーブンズ

$40,766 Vol.

1%

レイ・マカダム

$1,731 Vol.

1%

メアリー・フィッツパトリック

$2,415 Vol.

<1%

イアン・ノエル・スミス

$4,793 Vol.

<1%

セーアマス・マグラッタン

$1,912 Vol.

<1%

Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin

$1,784 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus strongly favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 75.5% implied probability to win the Dublin Central by-election, driven by his established North Inner City profile, recent positive canvassing feedback on housing reforms and youth programs, and potential to consolidate Labour and progressive transfers in a fragmented twelve-candidate field under Ireland's proportional representation system. Sinn Féin's long-serving councillor Janice Boylan holds second place at 15.2%, leveraging party organizational strength amid local concerns over safer communities and garda retention, though facing left-wing vote splits. Independent Gerry Hutch lingers at 4.1% despite name recognition from his narrow 2024 general election loss, hampered by a late February poll revealing two-thirds voter rejection of convicted criminals entering the Dáil. Nominations finalized last week have intensified campaigning ahead of the May vote, triggered by Fine Gael TD Paschal Donohoe's resignation.

Trader consensus strongly favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 75.5% implied probability to win the Dublin Central by-election, driven by his established North Inner City profile, recent positive canvassing feedback on housing reforms and youth programs, and potential to consolidate Labour and progressive transfers in a fragmented twelve-candidate field under Ireland's proportional representation system. Sinn Féin's long-serving councillor Janice Boylan holds second place at 15.2%, leveraging party organizational strength amid local concerns over safer communities and garda retention, though facing left-wing vote splits. Independent Gerry Hutch lingers at 4.1% despite name recognition from his narrow 2024 general election loss, hampered by a late February poll revealing two-thirds voter rejection of convicted criminals entering the Dáil. Nominations finalized last week have intensified campaigning ahead of the May vote, triggered by Fine Gael TD Paschal Donohoe's resignation.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus strongly favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 75.5% implied probability to win the Dublin Central by-election, driven by his established North Inner City profile, recent positive canvassing feedback on housing reforms and youth programs, and potential to consolidate Labour and progressive transfers in a fragmented twelve-candidate field under Ireland's proportional representation system. Sinn Féin's long-serving councillor Janice Boylan holds second place at 15.2%, leveraging party organizational strength amid local concerns over safer communities and garda retention, though facing left-wing vote splits. Independent Gerry Hutch lingers at 4.1% despite name recognition from his narrow 2024 general election loss, hampered by a late February poll revealing two-thirds voter rejection of convicted criminals entering the Dáil. Nominations finalized last week have intensified campaigning ahead of the May vote, triggered by Fine Gael TD Paschal Donohoe's resignation.

Trader consensus strongly favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 75.5% implied probability to win the Dublin Central by-election, driven by his established North Inner City profile, recent positive canvassing feedback on housing reforms and youth programs, and potential to consolidate Labour and progressive transfers in a fragmented twelve-candidate field under Ireland's proportional representation system. Sinn Féin's long-serving councillor Janice Boylan holds second place at 15.2%, leveraging party organizational strength amid local concerns over safer communities and garda retention, though facing left-wing vote splits. Independent Gerry Hutch lingers at 4.1% despite name recognition from his narrow 2024 general election loss, hampered by a late February poll revealing two-thirds voter rejection of convicted criminals entering the Dáil. Nominations finalized last week have intensified campaigning ahead of the May vote, triggered by Fine Gael TD Paschal Donohoe's resignation.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「ダブリン中央補欠選挙の勝者」はPolymarket上の12個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「ダニエル・エニス」で76%、次いで「ジャニス・ボイラン」が15%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、76¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に76%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「ダブリン中央補欠選挙の勝者」は$644.6Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Feb 20, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「ダブリン中央補欠選挙の勝者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている12個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「ダブリン中央補欠選挙の勝者」の現在のフロントランナーは「ダニエル・エニス」で76%であり、市場がこの結果に76%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「ジャニス・ボイラン」で15%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「ダブリン中央補欠選挙の勝者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。