Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 93.6% implied probability of no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its April 29 announcement, anchored by the central bank's March 18 hold at 2.25% amid balanced risks to growth and inflation. February CPI eased to 1.8%—near the 2% target—with core measures stable, offsetting a softening labor market (6.7% unemployment, 84,000 job losses) and Q4 GDP contraction of 0.6%. Upward inflation pressures from Middle East energy shocks and US tariffs prompted a cautious pause, with Governing Council signaling readiness to respond to evolving data. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI on April 20 and jobs data; hotter energy-led inflation could revive hike odds, while deeper downturn risks might pressure for a 25 basis points cut.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日変更なし 93.3%
利上げ 5.9%
25ベーシスポイントの利下げ 1.3%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ <1%
$56,408 Vol.
$56,408 Vol.
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
<1%
25ベーシスポイントの利下げ
1%
変更なし
93%
利上げ
6%
変更なし 93.3%
利上げ 5.9%
25ベーシスポイントの利下げ 1.3%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ <1%
$56,408 Vol.
$56,408 Vol.
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
<1%
25ベーシスポイントの利下げ
1%
変更なし
93%
利上げ
6%
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日: Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 93.6% implied probability of no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its April 29 announcement, anchored by the central bank's March 18 hold at 2.25% amid balanced risks to growth and inflation. February CPI eased to 1.8%—near the 2% target—with core measures stable, offsetting a softening labor market (6.7% unemployment, 84,000 job losses) and Q4 GDP contraction of 0.6%. Upward inflation pressures from Middle East energy shocks and US tariffs prompted a cautious pause, with Governing Council signaling readiness to respond to evolving data. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI on April 20 and jobs data; hotter energy-led inflation could revive hike odds, while deeper downturn risks might pressure for a 25 basis points cut.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問