Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 94.3% implied probability of no change at the Bank of Canada's April 17 policy announcement, driven by March CPI data released April 16 showing headline inflation at 2.9% year-over-year—easing from 3.4% but with core measures (trimmed-mean and median) stuck near 3.1% amid persistent shelter costs. Resilient labor market indicators, including 27,000 jobs added in March and unemployment holding at 6.1%, signal insufficient disinflation momentum for cuts from the current 4.75%-5% overnight rate target. Governor Macklem's recent emphasis on sustained progress reinforces this positioning. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly weak growth data or further core inflation softening, though proximity to resolution limits major shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日変更なし 94.5%
利上げ 4.3%
25ベーシスポイントの利下げ 1.1%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ <1%
$55,023 Vol.
$55,023 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
<1%
25ベーシスポイントの利下げ
1%
変更なし
95%
利上げ
4%
変更なし 94.5%
利上げ 4.3%
25ベーシスポイントの利下げ 1.1%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ <1%
$55,023 Vol.
$55,023 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
$14,144 Vol.
<1%
25ベーシスポイントの利下げ
$20,700 Vol.
1%
変更なし
$13,633 Vol.
95%
利上げ
$6,545 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 94.3% implied probability of no change at the Bank of Canada's April 17 policy announcement, driven by March CPI data released April 16 showing headline inflation at 2.9% year-over-year—easing from 3.4% but with core measures (trimmed-mean and median) stuck near 3.1% amid persistent shelter costs. Resilient labor market indicators, including 27,000 jobs added in March and unemployment holding at 6.1%, signal insufficient disinflation momentum for cuts from the current 4.75%-5% overnight rate target. Governor Macklem's recent emphasis on sustained progress reinforces this positioning. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly weak growth data or further core inflation softening, though proximity to resolution limits major shifts.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
音量
$55,023終了日
Apr 29, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 94.3% implied probability of no change at the Bank of Canada's April 17 policy announcement, driven by March CPI data released April 16 showing headline inflation at 2.9% year-over-year—easing from 3.4% but with core measures (trimmed-mean and median) stuck near 3.1% amid persistent shelter costs. Resilient labor market indicators, including 27,000 jobs added in March and unemployment holding at 6.1%, signal insufficient disinflation momentum for cuts from the current 4.75%-5% overnight rate target. Governor Macklem's recent emphasis on sustained progress reinforces this positioning. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly weak growth data or further core inflation softening, though proximity to resolution limits major shifts.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$55,023終了日
Apr 29, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 94.3% implied probability of no change at the Bank of Canada's April 17 policy announcement, driven by March CPI data released April 16 showing headline inflation at 2.9% year-over-year—easing from 3.4% but with core measures (trimmed-mean and median) stuck near 3.1% amid persistent shelter costs. Resilient labor market indicators, including 27,000 jobs added in March and unemployment holding at 6.1%, signal insufficient disinflation momentum for cuts from the current 4.75%-5% overnight rate target. Governor Macklem's recent emphasis on sustained progress reinforces this positioning. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly weak growth data or further core inflation softening, though proximity to resolution limits major shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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