Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's April policy rate, directly reflecting the central bank's April 29 announcement holding the target overnight rate steady at 2.25% amid balanced risks. March 2026 CPI inflation accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year, driven by gasoline surges from the Iran war's oil shock—projected transitory with core measures stable above 2% and long-term expectations anchored—offset by a softening labor market (unemployment in the 6.5%-7% range) and modest GDP growth forecast at 1.2% for 2026 under US tariff pressures. Governing Council is monitoring for persistence in energy-led inflation, with readiness to adjust; next decision June 10. Realistic challenges include extended Middle East volatility broadening price pressures, though post-announcement positioning remains firmly entrenched.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日変更なし 100.0%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ <1%
25ベーシスポイントの利下げ <1%
利上げ <1%
$251,926 Vol.
$251,926 Vol.
2026/04/29
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
いいえ
25ベーシスポイントの利下げ
いいえ
変更なし
はい
利上げ
いいえ
変更なし 100.0%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ <1%
25ベーシスポイントの利下げ <1%
利上げ <1%
$251,926 Vol.
$251,926 Vol.
2026/04/29
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
$80,110 Vol.
いいえ
25ベーシスポイントの利下げ
$50,784 Vol.
いいえ
変更なし
$81,691 Vol.
はい
利上げ
$39,342 Vol.
いいえ
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's April policy rate, directly reflecting the central bank's April 29 announcement holding the target overnight rate steady at 2.25% amid balanced risks. March 2026 CPI inflation accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year, driven by gasoline surges from the Iran war's oil shock—projected transitory with core measures stable above 2% and long-term expectations anchored—offset by a softening labor market (unemployment in the 6.5%-7% range) and modest GDP growth forecast at 1.2% for 2026 under US tariff pressures. Governing Council is monitoring for persistence in energy-led inflation, with readiness to adjust; next decision June 10. Realistic challenges include extended Middle East volatility broadening price pressures, though post-announcement positioning remains firmly entrenched.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
音量
$251,926終了日
2026/04/29マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's April policy rate, directly reflecting the central bank's April 29 announcement holding the target overnight rate steady at 2.25% amid balanced risks. March 2026 CPI inflation accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year, driven by gasoline surges from the Iran war's oil shock—projected transitory with core measures stable above 2% and long-term expectations anchored—offset by a softening labor market (unemployment in the 6.5%-7% range) and modest GDP growth forecast at 1.2% for 2026 under US tariff pressures. Governing Council is monitoring for persistence in energy-led inflation, with readiness to adjust; next decision June 10. Realistic challenges include extended Middle East volatility broadening price pressures, though post-announcement positioning remains firmly entrenched.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$251,926終了日
2026/04/29マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's April policy rate, directly reflecting the central bank's April 29 announcement holding the target overnight rate steady at 2.25% amid balanced risks. March 2026 CPI inflation accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year, driven by gasoline surges from the Iran war's oil shock—projected transitory with core measures stable above 2% and long-term expectations anchored—offset by a softening labor market (unemployment in the 6.5%-7% range) and modest GDP growth forecast at 1.2% for 2026 under US tariff pressures. Governing Council is monitoring for persistence in energy-led inflation, with readiness to adjust; next decision June 10. Realistic challenges include extended Middle East volatility broadening price pressures, though post-announcement positioning remains firmly entrenched.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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