Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by the Governing Council's April 30 decision to hold key interest rates steady at 2.0% deposit facility amid surging eurozone inflation risks. March HICP inflation jumped to 2.5%—above the 2% target—with staff projections revised upward to 2.6% average for 2026 due to persistent energy price pressures from Middle East tensions. President Lagarde highlighted intensified upside inflation risks and downside growth threats, noting internal debates on hikes as early as June. This hawkish "higher-for-longer" stance, reinforced by IMF forecasts for a 50 basis point increase, underpins the market's firm no-cut positioning ahead of the next policy meeting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$27,513 Vol.
$27,513 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$27,513 Vol.
$27,513 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by the Governing Council's April 30 decision to hold key interest rates steady at 2.0% deposit facility amid surging eurozone inflation risks. March HICP inflation jumped to 2.5%—above the 2% target—with staff projections revised upward to 2.6% average for 2026 due to persistent energy price pressures from Middle East tensions. President Lagarde highlighted intensified upside inflation risks and downside growth threats, noting internal debates on hikes as early as June. This hawkish "higher-for-longer" stance, reinforced by IMF forecasts for a 50 basis point increase, underpins the market's firm no-cut positioning ahead of the next policy meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
音量
$27,513終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by the Governing Council's April 30 decision to hold key interest rates steady at 2.0% deposit facility amid surging eurozone inflation risks. March HICP inflation jumped to 2.5%—above the 2% target—with staff projections revised upward to 2.6% average for 2026 due to persistent energy price pressures from Middle East tensions. President Lagarde highlighted intensified upside inflation risks and downside growth threats, noting internal debates on hikes as early as June. This hawkish "higher-for-longer" stance, reinforced by IMF forecasts for a 50 basis point increase, underpins the market's firm no-cut positioning ahead of the next policy meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$27,513終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by the Governing Council's April 30 decision to hold key interest rates steady at 2.0% deposit facility amid surging eurozone inflation risks. March HICP inflation jumped to 2.5%—above the 2% target—with staff projections revised upward to 2.6% average for 2026 due to persistent energy price pressures from Middle East tensions. President Lagarde highlighted intensified upside inflation risks and downside growth threats, noting internal debates on hikes as early as June. This hawkish "higher-for-longer" stance, reinforced by IMF forecasts for a 50 basis point increase, underpins the market's firm no-cut positioning ahead of the next policy meeting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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