The European Central Bank's March 19 decision to hold its deposit rate steady at 2% has solidified trader consensus against a 2026 rate cut, with "No" reflecting an 82% implied probability amid upward revisions to inflation forecasts at 2.6% for the year—driven by surging energy prices from Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict. Eurozone headline inflation unexpectedly rose to 1.9% in February, exceeding prior estimates, while GDP growth projections were trimmed to 0.9%, signaling stagflation risks. ECB forward guidance emphasizes data dependence and vigilance on inflation above the 2% target, with markets now pricing over two quarter-point hikes in 2026 and the next policy meeting on April 29 potentially signaling further tightening if energy shocks persist.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$20,538 Vol.
$20,538 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$20,538 Vol.
$20,538 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The European Central Bank's March 19 decision to hold its deposit rate steady at 2% has solidified trader consensus against a 2026 rate cut, with "No" reflecting an 82% implied probability amid upward revisions to inflation forecasts at 2.6% for the year—driven by surging energy prices from Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict. Eurozone headline inflation unexpectedly rose to 1.9% in February, exceeding prior estimates, while GDP growth projections were trimmed to 0.9%, signaling stagflation risks. ECB forward guidance emphasizes data dependence and vigilance on inflation above the 2% target, with markets now pricing over two quarter-point hikes in 2026 and the next policy meeting on April 29 potentially signaling further tightening if energy shocks persist.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
音量
$20,538終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The European Central Bank's March 19 decision to hold its deposit rate steady at 2% has solidified trader consensus against a 2026 rate cut, with "No" reflecting an 82% implied probability amid upward revisions to inflation forecasts at 2.6% for the year—driven by surging energy prices from Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict. Eurozone headline inflation unexpectedly rose to 1.9% in February, exceeding prior estimates, while GDP growth projections were trimmed to 0.9%, signaling stagflation risks. ECB forward guidance emphasizes data dependence and vigilance on inflation above the 2% target, with markets now pricing over two quarter-point hikes in 2026 and the next policy meeting on April 29 potentially signaling further tightening if energy shocks persist.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$20,538終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The European Central Bank's March 19 decision to hold its deposit rate steady at 2% has solidified trader consensus against a 2026 rate cut, with "No" reflecting an 82% implied probability amid upward revisions to inflation forecasts at 2.6% for the year—driven by surging energy prices from Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict. Eurozone headline inflation unexpectedly rose to 1.9% in February, exceeding prior estimates, while GDP growth projections were trimmed to 0.9%, signaling stagflation risks. ECB forward guidance emphasizes data dependence and vigilance on inflation above the 2% target, with markets now pricing over two quarter-point hikes in 2026 and the next policy meeting on April 29 potentially signaling further tightening if energy shocks persist.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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