Recent Middle East tensions and associated energy price shocks have pushed euro-area inflation projections for 2026 upward to around 2.6-2.7 percent, prompting the European Central Bank’s Governing Council to signal a data-dependent shift toward tighter monetary policy. At its April 2026 meeting, the ECB held the deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent but debated a possible hike in depth, with markets and economist surveys now embedding at least one 25-basis-point increase by mid-year and some forecasts pointing to two. Money-market pricing reflects this consensus through elevated probabilities of rate adjustments in June or July, driven by upside risks to price stability and the bank’s meeting-by-meeting approach. A swift regional de-escalation or sharper growth slowdown could still alter the path.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$116,222 Vol.
$116,222 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$116,222 Vol.
$116,222 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East tensions and associated energy price shocks have pushed euro-area inflation projections for 2026 upward to around 2.6-2.7 percent, prompting the European Central Bank’s Governing Council to signal a data-dependent shift toward tighter monetary policy. At its April 2026 meeting, the ECB held the deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent but debated a possible hike in depth, with markets and economist surveys now embedding at least one 25-basis-point increase by mid-year and some forecasts pointing to two. Money-market pricing reflects this consensus through elevated probabilities of rate adjustments in June or July, driven by upside risks to price stability and the bank’s meeting-by-meeting approach. A swift regional de-escalation or sharper growth slowdown could still alter the path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
音量
$116,222終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East tensions and associated energy price shocks have pushed euro-area inflation projections for 2026 upward to around 2.6-2.7 percent, prompting the European Central Bank’s Governing Council to signal a data-dependent shift toward tighter monetary policy. At its April 2026 meeting, the ECB held the deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent but debated a possible hike in depth, with markets and economist surveys now embedding at least one 25-basis-point increase by mid-year and some forecasts pointing to two. Money-market pricing reflects this consensus through elevated probabilities of rate adjustments in June or July, driven by upside risks to price stability and the bank’s meeting-by-meeting approach. A swift regional de-escalation or sharper growth slowdown could still alter the path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$116,222終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Middle East tensions and associated energy price shocks have pushed euro-area inflation projections for 2026 upward to around 2.6-2.7 percent, prompting the European Central Bank’s Governing Council to signal a data-dependent shift toward tighter monetary policy. At its April 2026 meeting, the ECB held the deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent but debated a possible hike in depth, with markets and economist surveys now embedding at least one 25-basis-point increase by mid-year and some forecasts pointing to two. Money-market pricing reflects this consensus through elevated probabilities of rate adjustments in June or July, driven by upside risks to price stability and the bank’s meeting-by-meeting approach. A swift regional de-escalation or sharper growth slowdown could still alter the path.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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