Incumbent Republican Sen. Shelley Moore Capito's bid for a third term in deeply Republican West Virginia anchors trader consensus at 93% for a GOP Senate winner, reflecting the state's Electoral College math dominance—Trump carried it by over 40 points recently, and Gov. Jim Justice won the 2024 Senate race by 48 points. Capito, who secured re-election by 43 points in 2020, formally launched her campaign in December 2025, facing only minor primary challengers like Alexander Gaaserud after the January filing deadline. Democrats, including Zachary Shrewsbury, lack competitive polling or fundraising to contest this safe seat ahead of the May 12 primaries and November 3 general election. Late-breaking scandals, a damaging GOP primary, or national Democratic wave could challenge odds, though historical base rates for such holds exceed 95% in similar districts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourVainqueur des élections sénatoriales de Virginie-Occident
Vainqueur des élections sénatoriales de Virginie-Occident
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Républicain
93%
Démocrate
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Républicain
$0 Vol.
93%
Démocrate
$2,236 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm West Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Shelley Moore Capito's bid for a third term in deeply Republican West Virginia anchors trader consensus at 93% for a GOP Senate winner, reflecting the state's Electoral College math dominance—Trump carried it by over 40 points recently, and Gov. Jim Justice won the 2024 Senate race by 48 points. Capito, who secured re-election by 43 points in 2020, formally launched her campaign in December 2025, facing only minor primary challengers like Alexander Gaaserud after the January filing deadline. Democrats, including Zachary Shrewsbury, lack competitive polling or fundraising to contest this safe seat ahead of the May 12 primaries and November 3 general election. Late-breaking scandals, a damaging GOP primary, or national Democratic wave could challenge odds, though historical base rates for such holds exceed 95% in similar districts.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm West Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$2,236Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm West Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Shelley Moore Capito's bid for a third term in deeply Republican West Virginia anchors trader consensus at 93% for a GOP Senate winner, reflecting the state's Electoral College math dominance—Trump carried it by over 40 points recently, and Gov. Jim Justice won the 2024 Senate race by 48 points. Capito, who secured re-election by 43 points in 2020, formally launched her campaign in December 2025, facing only minor primary challengers like Alexander Gaaserud after the January filing deadline. Democrats, including Zachary Shrewsbury, lack competitive polling or fundraising to contest this safe seat ahead of the May 12 primaries and November 3 general election. Late-breaking scandals, a damaging GOP primary, or national Democratic wave could challenge odds, though historical base rates for such holds exceed 95% in similar districts.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm West Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$2,236Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Shelley Moore Capito's bid for a third term in deeply Republican West Virginia anchors trader consensus at 93% for a GOP Senate winner, reflecting the state's Electoral College math dominance—Trump carried it by over 40 points recently, and Gov. Jim Justice won the 2024 Senate race by 48 points. Capito, who secured re-election by 43 points in 2020, formally launched her campaign in December 2025, facing only minor primary challengers like Alexander Gaaserud after the January filing deadline. Democrats, including Zachary Shrewsbury, lack competitive polling or fundraising to contest this safe seat ahead of the May 12 primaries and November 3 general election. Late-breaking scandals, a damaging GOP primary, or national Democratic wave could challenge odds, though historical base rates for such holds exceed 95% in similar districts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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