Nicolás Maduro's grip on power persists after Venezuela's disputed July 28 presidential election, where opposition claims of fraud backed by tally sheets prompted international non-recognition from the US, EU, and OAS, alongside renewed sanctions on regime officials. US narcoterrorism indictments since 2020 offer a path to lengthy prison sentences if extradited, while ICC prosecutor seeks arrest warrants for protest-related crimes against humanity, yet remain unissued. This impasse drives tight trader consensus, with "No prison time" at 33.5% edging 60+ months at 28.5%, reflecting regime stability versus risks from military defections or US policy shifts post-election. Recent protest suppressions and opposition exile underscore barriers to arrest, but diplomatic escalations could tip odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourAucune peine de prison 34%
60+ 29%
40–60 16%
<20 9.3%
$444,121 Vol.
$444,121 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Aucune peine de prison
34%
<20
9%
20–40
9%
40–60
16%
60+
29%
Aucune peine de prison 34%
60+ 29%
40–60 16%
<20 9.3%
$444,121 Vol.
$444,121 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Aucune peine de prison
$348,934 Vol.
34%
<20
$27,528 Vol.
9%
20–40
$26,609 Vol.
9%
40–60
$12,511 Vol.
16%
60+
$28,540 Vol.
29%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro's grip on power persists after Venezuela's disputed July 28 presidential election, where opposition claims of fraud backed by tally sheets prompted international non-recognition from the US, EU, and OAS, alongside renewed sanctions on regime officials. US narcoterrorism indictments since 2020 offer a path to lengthy prison sentences if extradited, while ICC prosecutor seeks arrest warrants for protest-related crimes against humanity, yet remain unissued. This impasse drives tight trader consensus, with "No prison time" at 33.5% edging 60+ months at 28.5%, reflecting regime stability versus risks from military defections or US policy shifts post-election. Recent protest suppressions and opposition exile underscore barriers to arrest, but diplomatic escalations could tip odds.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
Volume
$444,121Date de fin
Dec 31, 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro's grip on power persists after Venezuela's disputed July 28 presidential election, where opposition claims of fraud backed by tally sheets prompted international non-recognition from the US, EU, and OAS, alongside renewed sanctions on regime officials. US narcoterrorism indictments since 2020 offer a path to lengthy prison sentences if extradited, while ICC prosecutor seeks arrest warrants for protest-related crimes against humanity, yet remain unissued. This impasse drives tight trader consensus, with "No prison time" at 33.5% edging 60+ months at 28.5%, reflecting regime stability versus risks from military defections or US policy shifts post-election. Recent protest suppressions and opposition exile underscore barriers to arrest, but diplomatic escalations could tip odds.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$444,121Date de fin
Dec 31, 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Nicolás Maduro's grip on power persists after Venezuela's disputed July 28 presidential election, where opposition claims of fraud backed by tally sheets prompted international non-recognition from the US, EU, and OAS, alongside renewed sanctions on regime officials. US narcoterrorism indictments since 2020 offer a path to lengthy prison sentences if extradited, while ICC prosecutor seeks arrest warrants for protest-related crimes against humanity, yet remain unissued. This impasse drives tight trader consensus, with "No prison time" at 33.5% edging 60+ months at 28.5%, reflecting regime stability versus risks from military defections or US policy shifts post-election. Recent protest suppressions and opposition exile underscore barriers to arrest, but diplomatic escalations could tip odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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