Following the confirmed death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in early March 2026 amid escalated US-Iran military actions and strikes, his official @khamenei_ir X account—now bio-updated to "martyred Leader"—has shown minimal activity, reposting only four archival statements from prior years on March 26-28. This sparse posthumous management amid ongoing regional tensions, including recent US threats to Iranian infrastructure and retaliatory signals, has locked trader consensus at 100% implied probability for fewer than 20 posts during March 24-31. The commanding lead stems from verified low output and institutional restraint on new content; realistic challenges would demand an unprecedented posting surge exceeding 15 more in the final days, improbable given the pattern.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourKhamenei # posts March 24 - March 31, 2026?
Khamenei # posts March 24 - March 31, 2026?
<20 100.0%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
60-79 <1%
$36,715 Vol.
$36,715 Vol.
<20
Oui
20-39
Non
40-59
Non
60-79
Non
80-99
Non
100 à 119
Non
120-139
No
140-159
No
160-179
No
180-199
No
200+
No
<20 100.0%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
60-79 <1%
$36,715 Vol.
$36,715 Vol.
<20
Oui
20-39
Non
40-59
Non
60-79
Non
80-99
Non
100 à 119
Non
120-139
No
140-159
No
160-179
No
180-199
No
200+
No
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Mar 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Source de résolution
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Following the confirmed death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in early March 2026 amid escalated US-Iran military actions and strikes, his official @khamenei_ir X account—now bio-updated to "martyred Leader"—has shown minimal activity, reposting only four archival statements from prior years on March 26-28. This sparse posthumous management amid ongoing regional tensions, including recent US threats to Iranian infrastructure and retaliatory signals, has locked trader consensus at 100% implied probability for fewer than 20 posts during March 24-31. The commanding lead stems from verified low output and institutional restraint on new content; realistic challenges would demand an unprecedented posting surge exceeding 15 more in the final days, improbable given the pattern.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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