Consensus from major weather models like ECMWF and GFS points to a high of 17°C in Madrid on March 26, anchoring trader sentiment with 37% implied probability, as mild Atlantic flows bring typical late-March warmth without extremes. Historical data shows Madrid's average March high at 17°C, with recent AEMET observations confirming stable spring patterns amid neutral ENSO conditions. Lower odds for 16°C (23.5%) and 18°C (19.8%) reflect ensemble forecast spreads, while slim chances above 20°C stem from low heat dome risks. Updated runs expected today could shift odds, but current trader consensus aligns closely with verified short-range projections.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Madrid on March 26?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 26?
17°C 38%
16°C 24%
18°C 20.0%
15°C or below 9%
$82,355 Vol.
$82,355 Vol.
15°C or below
9%
16°C
24%
17°C
38%
18°C
20%
19°C
5%
20°C
4%
21°C
2%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
17°C 38%
16°C 24%
18°C 20.0%
15°C or below 9%
$82,355 Vol.
$82,355 Vol.
15°C or below
9%
16°C
24%
17°C
38%
18°C
20%
19°C
5%
20°C
4%
21°C
2%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Consensus from major weather models like ECMWF and GFS points to a high of 17°C in Madrid on March 26, anchoring trader sentiment with 37% implied probability, as mild Atlantic flows bring typical late-March warmth without extremes. Historical data shows Madrid's average March high at 17°C, with recent AEMET observations confirming stable spring patterns amid neutral ENSO conditions. Lower odds for 16°C (23.5%) and 18°C (19.8%) reflect ensemble forecast spreads, while slim chances above 20°C stem from low heat dome risks. Updated runs expected today could shift odds, but current trader consensus aligns closely with verified short-range projections.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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