Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 86% implied probability for Arizona's 4th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's Cook PVI of D+4, Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, and incumbent Rep. Greg Stanton's strong reelection position after his 52.7%-45.5% 2024 general election victory. Stanton's $1.6 million cash on hand dwarfs Republican challengers, whose fragmented July 21 primary field—led in fundraising by Zuhdi Jasser—lacks a proven general election contender after past nominee Kelly Cooper's defeats. Recent Democratic primary entry by progressive activist Kai Newkirk poses minimal threat to Stanton's nomination amid his establishment support, with no public polling yet available ahead of the general election on November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourAZ-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
AZ-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Parti démocrate
86%
Parti républicain
12%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Parti démocrate
$2,761 Vol.
86%
Parti républicain
$0 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 86% implied probability for Arizona's 4th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's Cook PVI of D+4, Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, and incumbent Rep. Greg Stanton's strong reelection position after his 52.7%-45.5% 2024 general election victory. Stanton's $1.6 million cash on hand dwarfs Republican challengers, whose fragmented July 21 primary field—led in fundraising by Zuhdi Jasser—lacks a proven general election contender after past nominee Kelly Cooper's defeats. Recent Democratic primary entry by progressive activist Kai Newkirk poses minimal threat to Stanton's nomination amid his establishment support, with no public polling yet available ahead of the general election on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$2,761Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 86% implied probability for Arizona's 4th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's Cook PVI of D+4, Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, and incumbent Rep. Greg Stanton's strong reelection position after his 52.7%-45.5% 2024 general election victory. Stanton's $1.6 million cash on hand dwarfs Republican challengers, whose fragmented July 21 primary field—led in fundraising by Zuhdi Jasser—lacks a proven general election contender after past nominee Kelly Cooper's defeats. Recent Democratic primary entry by progressive activist Kai Newkirk poses minimal threat to Stanton's nomination amid his establishment support, with no public polling yet available ahead of the general election on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$2,761Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 86% implied probability for Arizona's 4th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's Cook PVI of D+4, Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, and incumbent Rep. Greg Stanton's strong reelection position after his 52.7%-45.5% 2024 general election victory. Stanton's $1.6 million cash on hand dwarfs Republican challengers, whose fragmented July 21 primary field—led in fundraising by Zuhdi Jasser—lacks a proven general election contender after past nominee Kelly Cooper's defeats. Recent Democratic primary entry by progressive activist Kai Newkirk poses minimal threat to Stanton's nomination amid his establishment support, with no public polling yet available ahead of the general election on November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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