Trader consensus prices "No" at 97% reflecting Russia's entrenched occupation of Crimea since 2014, bolstered by layered fortifications, air defenses, and the Black Sea Fleet despite ongoing Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on assets like ships, radars, and factories in recent weeks. Ukrainian forces achieved modest territorial gains of about 400 square kilometers in Zaporizhzhia near Hulyaipole and Oleksandrivka through late March, but remain over 100 kilometers from the Perekop Isthmus amid Russian counterattacks and slow frontline shifts. Manpower shortages, contested logistics corridors, and the three-month timeline to June 30 render a ground recapture implausible without unprecedented Western escalation in long-range weapons or a Russian collapse. Zelensky's recent Easter truce proposal was dismissed by Moscow, sustaining stalemate dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?
$55,496 Vol.
$55,496 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$55,496 Vol.
$55,496 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 97% reflecting Russia's entrenched occupation of Crimea since 2014, bolstered by layered fortifications, air defenses, and the Black Sea Fleet despite ongoing Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on assets like ships, radars, and factories in recent weeks. Ukrainian forces achieved modest territorial gains of about 400 square kilometers in Zaporizhzhia near Hulyaipole and Oleksandrivka through late March, but remain over 100 kilometers from the Perekop Isthmus amid Russian counterattacks and slow frontline shifts. Manpower shortages, contested logistics corridors, and the three-month timeline to June 30 render a ground recapture implausible without unprecedented Western escalation in long-range weapons or a Russian collapse. Zelensky's recent Easter truce proposal was dismissed by Moscow, sustaining stalemate dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Volume
$55,496End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 97% reflecting Russia's entrenched occupation of Crimea since 2014, bolstered by layered fortifications, air defenses, and the Black Sea Fleet despite ongoing Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on assets like ships, radars, and factories in recent weeks. Ukrainian forces achieved modest territorial gains of about 400 square kilometers in Zaporizhzhia near Hulyaipole and Oleksandrivka through late March, but remain over 100 kilometers from the Perekop Isthmus amid Russian counterattacks and slow frontline shifts. Manpower shortages, contested logistics corridors, and the three-month timeline to June 30 render a ground recapture implausible without unprecedented Western escalation in long-range weapons or a Russian collapse. Zelensky's recent Easter truce proposal was dismissed by Moscow, sustaining stalemate dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Volume
$55,496End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 97% reflecting Russia's entrenched occupation of Crimea since 2014, bolstered by layered fortifications, air defenses, and the Black Sea Fleet despite ongoing Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on assets like ships, radars, and factories in recent weeks. Ukrainian forces achieved modest territorial gains of about 400 square kilometers in Zaporizhzhia near Hulyaipole and Oleksandrivka through late March, but remain over 100 kilometers from the Perekop Isthmus amid Russian counterattacks and slow frontline shifts. Manpower shortages, contested logistics corridors, and the three-month timeline to June 30 render a ground recapture implausible without unprecedented Western escalation in long-range weapons or a Russian collapse. Zelensky's recent Easter truce proposal was dismissed by Moscow, sustaining stalemate dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions