Traders' overwhelming 97% consensus on "No" reflects Russia's entrenched occupation of Crimea since 2014, bolstered by extensive fortifications, air defenses, and the Black Sea Fleet remnants despite Ukrainian strikes. Recent military developments, including a Russian An-26 transport plane crash in Crimea on March 31 killing 29 amid technical failure and ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on oil depots and railways, have degraded Russian assets but yielded no ground incursions or territorial gains. Front lines remain static or Russian-leaning in Donbas, with Ukraine prioritizing defensive holds in Kharkiv and Sumy over a high-risk Crimean push. Only three months remain until June 30; scenarios like sudden Western surges in long-range missiles or F-16s enabling amphibious operations, or Russian mobilization failures triggering collapse, could shift odds, though such breakthroughs face steep barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?
$54,555 Vol.
$54,555 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$54,555 Vol.
$54,555 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Traders' overwhelming 97% consensus on "No" reflects Russia's entrenched occupation of Crimea since 2014, bolstered by extensive fortifications, air defenses, and the Black Sea Fleet remnants despite Ukrainian strikes. Recent military developments, including a Russian An-26 transport plane crash in Crimea on March 31 killing 29 amid technical failure and ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on oil depots and railways, have degraded Russian assets but yielded no ground incursions or territorial gains. Front lines remain static or Russian-leaning in Donbas, with Ukraine prioritizing defensive holds in Kharkiv and Sumy over a high-risk Crimean push. Only three months remain until June 30; scenarios like sudden Western surges in long-range missiles or F-16s enabling amphibious operations, or Russian mobilization failures triggering collapse, could shift odds, though such breakthroughs face steep barriers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Volume
$54,555End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Traders' overwhelming 97% consensus on "No" reflects Russia's entrenched occupation of Crimea since 2014, bolstered by extensive fortifications, air defenses, and the Black Sea Fleet remnants despite Ukrainian strikes. Recent military developments, including a Russian An-26 transport plane crash in Crimea on March 31 killing 29 amid technical failure and ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on oil depots and railways, have degraded Russian assets but yielded no ground incursions or territorial gains. Front lines remain static or Russian-leaning in Donbas, with Ukraine prioritizing defensive holds in Kharkiv and Sumy over a high-risk Crimean push. Only three months remain until June 30; scenarios like sudden Western surges in long-range missiles or F-16s enabling amphibious operations, or Russian mobilization failures triggering collapse, could shift odds, though such breakthroughs face steep barriers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Volume
$54,706End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' overwhelming 97% consensus on "No" reflects Russia's entrenched occupation of Crimea since 2014, bolstered by extensive fortifications, air defenses, and the Black Sea Fleet remnants despite Ukrainian strikes. Recent military developments, including a Russian An-26 transport plane crash in Crimea on March 31 killing 29 amid technical failure and ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on oil depots and railways, have degraded Russian assets but yielded no ground incursions or territorial gains. Front lines remain static or Russian-leaning in Donbas, with Ukraine prioritizing defensive holds in Kharkiv and Sumy over a high-risk Crimean push. Only three months remain until June 30; scenarios like sudden Western surges in long-range missiles or F-16s enabling amphibious operations, or Russian mobilization failures triggering collapse, could shift odds, though such breakthroughs face steep barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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