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Politics·Trade War

Will Trump 10% China tariff increase go into effect by Friday?

Market icon
Politics·Trade War

Will Trump 10% China tariff increase go into effect by Friday?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$29,064 Vol.

>99% chance
Polymarket

$29,064 Vol.

On February 27, President Donald Trump said he would impose an additional 10% tariff on goods imported from China, effective March 4, 2025 (see: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/27/trump-says-mexico-canada-tariffs-will-start-march-4-plus-additional-10percent-on-china.html). This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general tariff increase of 10% on imports into the United States from China goes into effect for any amount of time between March 3 and March 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the tariffs must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. A general tariff that includes item-specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff increase of 10% on imports into the United States from China goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting China will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

On February 27, President Donald Trump said he would impose an additional 10% tariff on goods imported from China, effective March 4, 2025 (see: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/27/trump-says-mexico-canada-tariffs-will-start-march-4-plus-additional-10percent-on-china.html).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general tariff increase of 10% on imports into the United States from China goes into effect for any amount of time between March 3 and March 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the tariffs must have passed without being further delayed or suspended.

A general tariff that includes item-specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff increase of 10% on imports into the United States from China goes into effect.

Only tariffs specifically targeting China will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volume
$29,064
End Date
Mar 7, 2025
Market Opened
Mar 3, 2025, 11:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
On February 27, President Donald Trump said he would impose an additional 10% tariff on goods imported from China, effective March 4, 2025 (see: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/27/trump-says-mexico-canada-tariffs-will-start-march-4-plus-additional-10percent-on-china.html). This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general tariff increase of 10% on imports into the United States from China goes into effect for any amount of time between March 3 and March 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the tariffs must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. A general tariff that includes item-specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff increase of 10% on imports into the United States from China goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting China will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

On February 27, President Donald Trump said he would impose an additional 10% tariff on goods imported from China, effective March 4, 2025 (see: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/27/trump-says-mexico-canada-tariffs-will-start-march-4-plus-additional-10percent-on-china.html). This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general tariff increase of 10% on imports into the United States from China goes into effect for any amount of time between March 3 and March 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the tariffs must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. A general tariff that includes item-specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff increase of 10% on imports into the United States from China goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting China will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

On February 27, President Donald Trump said he would impose an additional 10% tariff on goods imported from China, effective March 4, 2025 (see: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/27/trump-says-mexico-canada-tariffs-will-start-march-4-plus-additional-10percent-on-china.html).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general tariff increase of 10% on imports into the United States from China goes into effect for any amount of time between March 3 and March 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the tariffs must have passed without being further delayed or suspended.

A general tariff that includes item-specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff increase of 10% on imports into the United States from China goes into effect.

Only tariffs specifically targeting China will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volume
$29,064
End Date
Mar 7, 2025
Market Opened
Mar 3, 2025, 11:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
On February 27, President Donald Trump said he would impose an additional 10% tariff on goods imported from China, effective March 4, 2025 (see: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/27/trump-says-mexico-canada-tariffs-will-start-march-4-plus-additional-10percent-on-china.html). This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general tariff increase of 10% on imports into the United States from China goes into effect for any amount of time between March 3 and March 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the tariffs must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. A general tariff that includes item-specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff increase of 10% on imports into the United States from China goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting China will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Trump 10% China tariff increase go into effect by Friday?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Trump 10% China tariff increase go into effect by Friday?" has generated $29.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 3, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Trump 10% China tariff increase go into effect by Friday?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Trump 10% China tariff increase go into effect by Friday?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Trump 10% China tariff increase go into effect by Friday?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.