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Politics·Culture

Will TikTok be banned by March 31?

icon for Will TikTok be banned by March 31?
Politics·Culture

Will TikTok be banned by March 31?

Ended: Mar 31

Ended: Mar 31

<1% chance
Polymarket

$26,994 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$26,994 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. government ban that prohibits access or use of the TikTok app by the majority of Americans in the United States becomes legally enforceable for any amount of time between November 4, 2025 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Trump’s executive order delaying enforcement of the ban expires or is removed without TikTok coming into compliance with U.S. laws and regulations, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether enforcement action is taken by the U.S. government. If TikTok is sold to another entity in such a way that it comes into compliance with U.S. laws and regulations this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that TikTok avoided a nationwide U.S. ban by the March 31, 2026, deadline, driven by President Trump's repeated executive orders extending enforcement delays on the 2024 Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act—from January 2025 through multiple 75- to 90-day periods—and culminating in ByteDance's January 23, 2026, agreement to form a new U.S.-controlled joint venture entity, satisfying national security divestiture requirements without app shutdown. No enforcement actions followed, with the platform operational post-deadline. While resolved to "No," unlikely reversals could stem from unforeseen legal challenges, congressional overrides, or CFIUS rejections of the deal structure, though structural approvals and quiet operations since January diminish such risks.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. government ban that prohibits access or use of the TikTok app by the majority of Americans in the United States becomes legally enforceable for any amount of time between November 4, 2025 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If Trump’s executive order delaying enforcement of the ban expires or is removed without TikTok coming into compliance with U.S. laws and regulations, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether enforcement action is taken by the U.S. government.

If TikTok is sold to another entity in such a way that it comes into compliance with U.S. laws and regulations this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$26,994
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 3:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. government ban that prohibits access or use of the TikTok app by the majority of Americans in the United States becomes legally enforceable for any amount of time between November 4, 2025 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Trump’s executive order delaying enforcement of the ban expires or is removed without TikTok coming into compliance with U.S. laws and regulations, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether enforcement action is taken by the U.S. government. If TikTok is sold to another entity in such a way that it comes into compliance with U.S. laws and regulations this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. government ban that prohibits access or use of the TikTok app by the majority of Americans in the United States becomes legally enforceable for any amount of time between November 4, 2025 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Trump’s executive order delaying enforcement of the ban expires or is removed without TikTok coming into compliance with U.S. laws and regulations, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether enforcement action is taken by the U.S. government. If TikTok is sold to another entity in such a way that it comes into compliance with U.S. laws and regulations this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that TikTok avoided a nationwide U.S. ban by the March 31, 2026, deadline, driven by President Trump's repeated executive orders extending enforcement delays on the 2024 Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act—from January 2025 through multiple 75- to 90-day periods—and culminating in ByteDance's January 23, 2026, agreement to form a new U.S.-controlled joint venture entity, satisfying national security divestiture requirements without app shutdown. No enforcement actions followed, with the platform operational post-deadline. While resolved to "No," unlikely reversals could stem from unforeseen legal challenges, congressional overrides, or CFIUS rejections of the deal structure, though structural approvals and quiet operations since January diminish such risks.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. government ban that prohibits access or use of the TikTok app by the majority of Americans in the United States becomes legally enforceable for any amount of time between November 4, 2025 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If Trump’s executive order delaying enforcement of the ban expires or is removed without TikTok coming into compliance with U.S. laws and regulations, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether enforcement action is taken by the U.S. government.

If TikTok is sold to another entity in such a way that it comes into compliance with U.S. laws and regulations this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$26,994
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 3:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. government ban that prohibits access or use of the TikTok app by the majority of Americans in the United States becomes legally enforceable for any amount of time between November 4, 2025 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Trump’s executive order delaying enforcement of the ban expires or is removed without TikTok coming into compliance with U.S. laws and regulations, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether enforcement action is taken by the U.S. government. If TikTok is sold to another entity in such a way that it comes into compliance with U.S. laws and regulations this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will TikTok be banned by March 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will TikTok be banned by March 31?" has generated $27K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will TikTok be banned by March 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will TikTok be banned by March 31?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will TikTok be banned by March 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.