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Will DOGE balance the budget in 2025?

Market icon

Will DOGE balance the budget in 2025?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$69,875 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$69,875 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the budget is balanced for the 2025 fiscal year, i.e. if revenue minus spending is 0 or greater. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the Federal Surplus/Deficit published by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) here https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSD.

This market will resolve according to the first data release from the OMB - any further updates won't be considered.
Volume
$69,875
End Date
Jan 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 9, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the budget is balanced for the 2025 fiscal year, i.e. if revenue minus spending is 0 or greater. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Federal Surplus/Deficit published by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) here https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSD. This market will resolve according to the first data release from the OMB - any further updates won't be considered.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the budget is balanced for the 2025 fiscal year, i.e. if revenue minus spending is 0 or greater. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the Federal Surplus/Deficit published by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) here https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSD.

This market will resolve according to the first data release from the OMB - any further updates won't be considered.
Volume
$69,875
End Date
Jan 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 9, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the budget is balanced for the 2025 fiscal year, i.e. if revenue minus spending is 0 or greater. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Federal Surplus/Deficit published by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) here https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSD. This market will resolve according to the first data release from the OMB - any further updates won't be considered.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will DOGE balance the budget in 2025?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will DOGE balance the budget in 2025?" has generated $69.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will DOGE balance the budget in 2025?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will DOGE balance the budget in 2025?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will DOGE balance the budget in 2025?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.