Traders exhibit near-certain consensus at 96.1% implied probability for no additional country boycotting Eurovision 2026 by March 31, betting heavily on the contest's historical resilience amid political tensions. Despite 2024's Israel controversy fueling protests and petition drives, no European Broadcasting Union (EBU) members withdrew from the 2025 edition in Switzerland, with all 37 participating countries confirmed and rehearsals underway as of late 2024. Precedent shows Eurovision enduring geopolitical friction—Russia's exclusion was EBU-enforced, not voluntary boycotts—bolstering trader confidence in broadcaster commitments over activist pressure. Realistic upsets could arise if a polarizing act wins in May 2025, prompting a host nation backlash before the deadline, though current sentiment dismisses such shifts absent firm announcements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$19,420 Vol.
$19,420 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$19,420 Vol.
$19,420 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Iceland has become the fifth country to announce a boycott of the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest over Israel’s participation. You can read more about this development here: https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2025/dec/10/iceland-becomes-fifth-country-to-boycott-eurovison-2026-over-israel.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Iceland, Spain, Slovenia, the Netherlands, or Ireland announces a boycott of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 between this market’s creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Only boycotts, defined as official declarations of non-participation, will qualify for resolution. Bans or exclusions will not qualify.
The qualifying boycott announcement must occur within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective countries, the European Broadcasting Union (EBU), and Eurovision; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Traders exhibit near-certain consensus at 96.1% implied probability for no additional country boycotting Eurovision 2026 by March 31, betting heavily on the contest's historical resilience amid political tensions. Despite 2024's Israel controversy fueling protests and petition drives, no European Broadcasting Union (EBU) members withdrew from the 2025 edition in Switzerland, with all 37 participating countries confirmed and rehearsals underway as of late 2024. Precedent shows Eurovision enduring geopolitical friction—Russia's exclusion was EBU-enforced, not voluntary boycotts—bolstering trader confidence in broadcaster commitments over activist pressure. Realistic upsets could arise if a polarizing act wins in May 2025, prompting a host nation backlash before the deadline, though current sentiment dismisses such shifts absent firm announcements.
Iceland has become the fifth country to announce a boycott of the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest over Israel’s participation. You can read more about this development here: https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2025/dec/10/iceland-becomes-fifth-country-to-boycott-eurovison-2026-over-israel.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Iceland, Spain, Slovenia, the Netherlands, or Ireland announces a boycott of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 between this market’s creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Only boycotts, defined as official declarations of non-participation, will qualify for resolution. Bans or exclusions will not qualify.
The qualifying boycott announcement must occur within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective countries, the European Broadcasting Union (EBU), and Eurovision; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Iceland, Spain, Slovenia, the Netherlands, or Ireland announces a boycott of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 between this market’s creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Only boycotts, defined as official declarations of non-participation, will qualify for resolution. Bans or exclusions will not qualify.
The qualifying boycott announcement must occur within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective countries, the European Broadcasting Union (EBU), and Eurovision; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 4:50 PM ET
Volume
$19,420End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iceland has become the fifth country to announce a boycott of the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest over Israel’s participation. You can read more about this development here: https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2025/dec/10/iceland-becomes-fifth-country-to-boycott-eurovison-2026-over-israel.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Iceland, Spain, Slovenia, the Netherlands, or Ireland announces a boycott of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 between this market’s creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Only boycotts, defined as official declarations of non-participation, will qualify for resolution. Bans or exclusions will not qualify.
The qualifying boycott announcement must occur within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective countries, the European Broadcasting Union (EBU), and Eurovision; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Traders exhibit near-certain consensus at 96.1% implied probability for no additional country boycotting Eurovision 2026 by March 31, betting heavily on the contest's historical resilience amid political tensions. Despite 2024's Israel controversy fueling protests and petition drives, no European Broadcasting Union (EBU) members withdrew from the 2025 edition in Switzerland, with all 37 participating countries confirmed and rehearsals underway as of late 2024. Precedent shows Eurovision enduring geopolitical friction—Russia's exclusion was EBU-enforced, not voluntary boycotts—bolstering trader confidence in broadcaster commitments over activist pressure. Realistic upsets could arise if a polarizing act wins in May 2025, prompting a host nation backlash before the deadline, though current sentiment dismisses such shifts absent firm announcements.
Iceland has become the fifth country to announce a boycott of the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest over Israel’s participation. You can read more about this development here: https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2025/dec/10/iceland-becomes-fifth-country-to-boycott-eurovison-2026-over-israel.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Iceland, Spain, Slovenia, the Netherlands, or Ireland announces a boycott of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 between this market’s creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Only boycotts, defined as official declarations of non-participation, will qualify for resolution. Bans or exclusions will not qualify.
The qualifying boycott announcement must occur within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective countries, the European Broadcasting Union (EBU), and Eurovision; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Iceland, Spain, Slovenia, the Netherlands, or Ireland announces a boycott of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 between this market’s creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Only boycotts, defined as official declarations of non-participation, will qualify for resolution. Bans or exclusions will not qualify.
The qualifying boycott announcement must occur within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective countries, the European Broadcasting Union (EBU), and Eurovision; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Volume
$19,420End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders exhibit near-certain consensus at 96.1% implied probability for no additional country boycotting Eurovision 2026 by March 31, betting heavily on the contest's historical resilience amid political tensions. Despite 2024's Israel controversy fueling protests and petition drives, no European Broadcasting Union (EBU) members withdrew from the 2025 edition in Switzerland, with all 37 participating countries confirmed and rehearsals underway as of late 2024. Precedent shows Eurovision enduring geopolitical friction—Russia's exclusion was EBU-enforced, not voluntary boycotts—bolstering trader confidence in broadcaster commitments over activist pressure. Realistic upsets could arise if a polarizing act wins in May 2025, prompting a host nation backlash before the deadline, though current sentiment dismisses such shifts absent firm announcements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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