NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's March 22 Fox News interview, confirming multiple recent conversations with President Trump amid U.S. calls for alliance support on Strait of Hormuz tensions, has driven trader consensus to price Rutte's "Yes" shares at around 60%, leading the market. This reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of Trump's diplomatic outreach to key figures like Mohammed bin Salman (11%) and Volodymyr Zelenskyy (4%), with lower probabilities for others including Xi Jinping (2%) despite high volume and review status. Other verified interactions, such as Trump's March 22 call with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and March 19 bilateral with Japan's leader, fall outside listed outcomes. As March 31 passed without broader confirmations, resolution hinges on consensus credible reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$1,688,088 Vol.

Mark Rutte
17%

Ahmed al-Sharaa
6%

Mohammed bin Salman
4%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy
3%

Nicolás Maduro
1%

Yoon Suk Yeol
1%

Xi Jinping
<1%

Kim Jong Un
<1%

Reza Pahlavi
<1%

MrBeast
<1%

Pope Leo XIV
<1%

Masoud Pezeshkian
<1%
$1,688,088 Vol.

Mark Rutte
17%

Ahmed al-Sharaa
6%

Mohammed bin Salman
4%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy
3%

Nicolás Maduro
1%

Yoon Suk Yeol
1%

Xi Jinping
<1%

Kim Jong Un
<1%

Reza Pahlavi
<1%

MrBeast
<1%

Pope Leo XIV
<1%

Masoud Pezeshkian
<1%
A talk is defined as any interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 1, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
A talk is defined as any interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's March 22 Fox News interview, confirming multiple recent conversations with President Trump amid U.S. calls for alliance support on Strait of Hormuz tensions, has driven trader consensus to price Rutte's "Yes" shares at around 60%, leading the market. This reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of Trump's diplomatic outreach to key figures like Mohammed bin Salman (11%) and Volodymyr Zelenskyy (4%), with lower probabilities for others including Xi Jinping (2%) despite high volume and review status. Other verified interactions, such as Trump's March 22 call with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and March 19 bilateral with Japan's leader, fall outside listed outcomes. As March 31 passed without broader confirmations, resolution hinges on consensus credible reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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