Name: Who will Trump pick for Defense Secretary?
Start: 2024-11-06T20:43:13.199399Z
End: 2025-06-30T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on who Donald Trump will appoint as his Defense Secretary.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates Mike Waltz for US Secretary of Defense by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for this position - if Trump nominates another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Mike Waltz

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates Tom Cotton for US Secretary of Defense by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for this position - if Trump nominates another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Tom Cotton

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates Mike Pompeo for US Secretary of Defense by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for this position - if Trump nominates another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Mike Pompeo

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates Christopher Miller for US Secretary of Defense by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for this position - if Trump nominates another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Christopher Miller

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates Robert O’Brien for US Secretary of Defense by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for this position - if Trump nominates another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Robert O’Brien

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates Mike Gallagher for US Secretary of Defense by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for this position - if Trump nominates another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Mike Gallagher

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates someone other than any of the named candidates in the group for US Secretary of Defense by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve at the time of Trump's nomination, at which point if the nominee is none of the named candidates in this market's group, it will resolve to "Yes."

This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for this position - if Trump nominates another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Other

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates Joni Ernst for US Secretary of Defense by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for this position - if Trump nominates another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Joni Ernst

Who will Trump pick for Defense Secretary?

This market will resolve according to the next person Donald Trump appoints to the National Security Advisor position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on Trump's first announcement - if Trump announces another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

This market refers to the first permanent National Security Advisor following Mike Waltz's departure from the role; any acting advisor or otherwise temporary advisor will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Fred Fleitz be next National Security Advisor?

Trump's Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has floated the idea of Trump naming a successor to Jerome Powell to serve as a "shadow chair", prior to the end of Powell's term, scheduled for May 2026. (see: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/business/money-report/fed-chair-jerome-powell-can-serve-remainder-of-term-says-trumps-treasury-pick-bessent/3788991/).

This market will resolve to according the individual Donald Trump announces as his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No announcement by December 31".  

The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse Andy Barr for KY-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be the US Secretary of Defense for any period of time between December 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?

Donald Trump recently announced he was firing Lisa D. Cook from her position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors: https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-lisa-cook-trump-6fca3d2fbb54ba204cc91398e6a7b020

This market will resolve to according the next individual Donald Trump nominates or announces as a nominee to become a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors between August 26, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If Donald Trump does not announce nominee for Fed Governor within this market's timeframe, it will resolve to "No announcement by December 31".

This market will resolve based on the first individual trump nominates within the established timeframe.

The announcement of a specific nominee will qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether that individual is later officially nominated.

The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump make no announcement by December 31 to replace Lisa Cook?

This market will resolve according to the next listed individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration.

If none of the listed individuals leave between December 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name is alphabetically first.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
A listed individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. 

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

duplicate Will Mike Waltz be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement within this market’s timeframe from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. 

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made before the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, will immediately resolve this market to “Yes”. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Eric Adams to his administration by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Eric Adams join Trump administration by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Laura Loomer to his administration by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Laura Loomer join Trump administration by December 31?

A United Nations Secretary-General selection is expected to be held in 2026 to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations.

This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Secretary-Generals appointed before the next Secretary-General selection will not count.

If no United Nations Secretary-General selection takes place or the results of this selection are not known by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Jacinda Ardern be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count.

Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position.

Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2026?

Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in an event titled "The President signs the National Defense Authorization Act" in Washington on December 18, 2025, 6PM ET (see https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about the scheduled event titled "The President signs the National Defense Authorization Act" on December 18, 2025, 6PM ET (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 18, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Border" 3+ times at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

This is a polymarket on which player will be named the 2025–26 NFL Defensive Player of the Year. 

If the listed player is named the 2025-26 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 NFL DPOY is not announced by May 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the NFL. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Myles Garrett win the 2025-26 NFL DPOY?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy,  Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the U.S. will cut military or intelligence aid to Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Any official announcement signaling a substantial reduction in either military or intelligence aid will qualify, regardless of whether or not the cuts actually occur. 

A qualifying announcement must state an actual decision to cut military or intelligence aid. Conditional, hypothetical, or contingent statements, such as “aid may be cut,” “could be cut,” or “will be cut if…”, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump Administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting confirming that such cuts have occurred will also suffice.

Will Trump announce a cut to U.S. military or intelligence aid to Ukraine by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration takes a formal action or makes an official announcement directing the deployment of National Guard troops to the listed city by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying announcement or action will count, regardless of if/when the deployment actually occurs, or if the deployment is delayed, suspended, or subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions.

Qualifying actions include but are not limited to:
- A Presidential action (e.g., Executive Order, Presidential Memorandum) that directs or announces National Guard deployment to the listed city.
- An official White House/DoD/National Guard Bureau press release, fact sheet, or order explicitly stating that National Guard troops will be deployed to the listed city.
- A Secretary of Defense or NGB directive/order that calls up or assigns National Guard forces to the listed city, including under Title 32 (state control with federal funding) or Title 10 (federalized).
- An official federal announcement that specific state Guard units (including the listed city National Guard or out-of-state Guard) are being sent to the listed city.

Non-qualifying actions include:
- Informal announcements/social media posts which do not constitute a formal policy announcement 
- Ambiguous remarks, “we’re considering it,” broad statements like “ready to go anywhere,” or contingent plans without a clear directive to the listed city.
- Generic posture changes (e.g., standing up quick-reaction forces “nationwide”) that do not explicitly name the listed city as a deployment location.
- A state-only activation by the listed city's state Governor without any official Trump administration action or announcement about sending the Guard to the listed city.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump send the national guard to Los Angeles by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Benjamin Netanyahu personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

This includes calling Netanyahu weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, or using other derogatory language. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

Any public statement made by Trump qualifies.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump publicly disparage Netanyahu by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially appoints, or announces the appointment of a special prosecutor, special counsel, or other independent prosecutor to investigate matters related to Jeffrey Epstein by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.  Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
 
To qualify, the appointee must be explicitly tasked with investigating the Epstein case. A public statement from Trump, the White House, or the Department of Justice confirming the appointment will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of when the appointment goes into effect. 

General statements of intent without a named appointee will not qualify. 

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration or a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump appoints special prosecutor for Epstein case in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the player who wins 2025-2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award. 

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the NFL.

Will Carson Schwesinger be the 2025-2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year?

This market will resolve according to the candidate Bernie Sanders announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election.

If Bernie Sanders does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Bernie Sanders or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Bernie Sanders' endorsement.

Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration officially announces that they will be sending US troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying announcement must be part of a formal agreement between the United States and another country or international organization or otherwise indicative of a formalized policy.

Announcement which are statements of intent, contingent, or otherwise are not indicative of a formalized policy will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump agrees to send U.S. peacekeeping force to Ukraine?

This market will resolve according to the market cap of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) as of market close on December 31, 2025.

The market capitalization of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) will be determined by checking Google Finance’s “Market Cap” metric for DJT at the time of market close for December 31, 2025 (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/DJT:NASDAQ).

If the market capitalization falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

If Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) changes its name or is merged into another entity before this market’s check time, this market will resolve based on the market capitalization of the successor entity.

The resolution source for this market will be Google Finance’s “Market Cap” metric for DJT (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/DJT:NASDAQ). If this resolution source is not available at this market’s check time, this market will remain open until it becomes available again and resolve based on the figure reported at that time. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another credible source will be chosen to resolve this market.

Will $DJT's market cap be between 3.5b and 3.75b

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual is formally charged or criminally indicted for insider trading related to a tariff policy announcement made during the second Trump administration between July 11 and December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will anyone be charged for insider trading Trump tariff announcements?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Roger Ver before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (NEA) between October 1, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A national emergency must actually be declared for this market to resolve to "Yes" - it will not be enough for Trump to announce an intention to declare a national emergency.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.

Trump declares another national emergency by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump announces that he is running for a third term as US President by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Trump must definitively state his intent to run (e.g., "I am running for a third term" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice. 

Past statements such his March 30 NBC phone interview where he stated "There are methods which you could do it, as you know... A lot of people want me to do it." or his November 13, 2024, where he stated "I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out.’" would NOT qualify. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Donald Trump (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump announce run for 3rd term?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Washington Commanders, or the ownership/development entity responsible for the team’s planned new stadium in Washington, D.C., officially announce and agree that the stadium will be named after Donald Trump, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

A qualifying announcement must:
- Be made publicly and on the record by the Commanders organization or by the entity that owns or controls the new stadium (e.g., via press release, official statement, or filing).
- Clearly state that the new stadium will bear Trump’s name (for example, “Trump Stadium” or “Donald J. Trump Field”).
- Reflect a finalized agreement or naming-rights deal, not a proposal, negotiation, or expression of intent.

If any other official naming-rights deal is announced for the new stadium prior to June 30, 2026 — including a corporate sponsorship or another individual’s name — this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution sources will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

Washington Commanders agree to name stadium after Trump?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal jurisdiction of the United States and/or the District of Columbia formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any former member(s) of the House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

This includes the following individuals: Bennie Thompson, Liz Cheney, Zoe Lofgren, Adam Schiff, Pete Aguilar, Stephanie Murphy, Jamie Raskin, Elaine Luria, Adam Kinzinger

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from U.S. governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Who will Trump pick for Defense Secretary?

Mike Waltz
$73,869 Vol.
No

Tom Cotton
$45,727 Vol.
No

Mike Pompeo
$89,416 Vol.
No

Christopher Miller
$44,950 Vol.
No

Robert O’Brien
$40,699 Vol.
No

Mike Gallagher
$33,605 Vol.
No

Other
$2,200 Vol.
Yes

Joni Ernst
$22,852 Vol.
No

Market Context

Who will Trump pick for Defense Secretary?

Rules

Who will Trump pick for Defense Secretary?

Market Context

Who will Trump pick for Defense Secretary?

About

Related

Who will Trump pick for Defense Secretary?

Mike Waltz$73,869 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Tom Cotton$45,727 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Mike Pompeo$89,416 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Christopher Miller$44,950 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Robert O’Brien$40,699 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Mike Gallagher$33,605 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Other$2,200 Vol.Yescircle check

Joni Ernst$22,852 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

Who will Trump pick for Defense Secretary?

Rules

Who will Trump pick for Defense Secretary?

Market Context

Who will Trump pick for Defense Secretary?

About

Related

Mike Waltz
$73,869 Vol.
No

Tom Cotton
$45,727 Vol.
No

Mike Pompeo
$89,416 Vol.
No

Christopher Miller
$44,950 Vol.
No

Robert O’Brien
$40,699 Vol.
No

Mike Gallagher
$33,605 Vol.
No

Other
$2,200 Vol.
Yes

Joni Ernst
$22,852 Vol.
No