Market icon

Who will Trump announce to replace Kugler?

Market icon

Who will Trump announce to replace Kugler?

Stephen Miran 100.0%

Kevin Warsh <1%

Kevin Hassett <1%

Arthur Laffer <1%

Polymarket

$86,980 Vol.

Stephen Miran 100.0%

Kevin Warsh <1%

Kevin Hassett <1%

Arthur Laffer <1%

Polymarket

$86,980 Vol.

Kevin Warsh

$30,968 Vol.

No

Kevin Hassett

$14,142 Vol.

No

Arthur Laffer

$7,207 Vol.

No

Larry Kudlow

$6,504 Vol.

No

Judy Shelton

$1,515 Vol.

No

Ron Paul

$2,298 Vol.

No

Chamath Palihapitiya

$1,135 Vol.

No

Howard Lutnick

$1,735 Vol.

No

Scott Bessent

$4,044 Vol.

No

Elon Musk

$2,397 Vol.

No

Chris Waller

$4,900 Vol.

No

Michelle Bowman

$1,555 Vol.

No

Roger W. Ferguson Jr.

$1,769 Vol.

No

Stephen Miran

$1,475 Vol.

Yes

No announcement by December 31

$5,333 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to according the individual Donald Trump announces as his nominee to fill Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler's chair. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for this position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No announcement by December 31".

An announcement of Trump's nominee to fill this position will be sufficient to immediately resolve this market, regardless of whether that individual ultimately is confirmed.

The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$86,980
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Aug 1, 2025, 4:57 PM ET
This market will resolve to according the individual Donald Trump announces as his nominee to fill Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler's chair. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for this position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No announcement by December 31". An announcement of Trump's nominee to fill this position will be sufficient to immediately resolve this market, regardless of whether that individual ultimately is confirmed. The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will Trump announce to replace Kugler?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Stephen Miran" at 100%, followed by "Kevin Warsh" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will Trump announce to replace Kugler?" has generated $87K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 1, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will Trump announce to replace Kugler?," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will Trump announce to replace Kugler?" is "Stephen Miran" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Kevin Warsh" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will Trump announce to replace Kugler?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.