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Politics·Trump

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Market icon
Politics·Trump

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$760,718 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$760,718 Vol.

Polymarket

Kash Patel

$116,325 Vol.

77%

Tulsi Gabbard

$5,820 Vol.

63%

Kristi Noem

$83,772 Vol.

59%

Howard Lutnick

$32,502 Vol.

51%

Lee Zeldin

$23,703 Vol.

48%

Pete Hegseth

$7,485 Vol.

42%

Karoline Leavitt

$9,263 Vol.

42%

Tom Homan

$33 Vol.

24%

Dan Scavino

$0 Vol.

39%

Susie Wiles

$38,990 Vol.

34%

John Ratcliffe

$0 Vol.

28%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$63,132 Vol.

27%

Russell Vought

$129 Vol.

17%

David Sacks

$5,891 Vol.

25%

Scott Bessent

$397 Vol.

22%

Marco Rubio

$2,576 Vol.

21%

Stephen Miller

$495 Vol.

16%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.President Trump's abrupt removal of Attorney General Pam Bondi on April 2, 2026, following the March 5 ouster of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem—later reassigned as Special Envoy for the Shield of the Americas—marks the first major Cabinet departures in his second term, fueling expectations of further turnover. These changes come amid reports of a broader Cabinet reset, including discussions around FBI Director Kash Patel's tenure amid congressional scrutiny over agent firings and travel decisions. With senior staff turnover at 29% as of January per Brookings tracking, historical first-term patterns of high churn due to policy clashes and performance pressures persist, while upcoming Senate confirmations for replacements like Todd Blanche at DOJ and ongoing oversight hearings could accelerate additional exits before year-end.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$760,718
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.President Trump's abrupt removal of Attorney General Pam Bondi on April 2, 2026, following the March 5 ouster of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem—later reassigned as Special Envoy for the Shield of the Americas—marks the first major Cabinet departures in his second term, fueling expectations of further turnover. These changes come amid reports of a broader Cabinet reset, including discussions around FBI Director Kash Patel's tenure amid congressional scrutiny over agent firings and travel decisions. With senior staff turnover at 29% as of January per Brookings tracking, historical first-term patterns of high churn due to policy clashes and performance pressures persist, while upcoming Senate confirmations for replacements like Todd Blanche at DOJ and ongoing oversight hearings could accelerate additional exits before year-end.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$760,718
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 19 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Pam Bondi" at 100%, followed by "Dan Bongino" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?" has generated $760.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?," browse the 19 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?" is "Pam Bondi" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Dan Bongino" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.