Name: Who will Biden pardon?
Start: 2024-12-13T23:31:24.927351Z
End: 2025-01-20T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on predicting which individuals President Biden will grant pardons to.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Adam Kinzinger receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve by Joseph Biden before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Adam Kinzinger

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthony Fauci receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve by Joseph Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Fauci

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hillary Clinton receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve by Joseph Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Hillary Clinton

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Bankman-Fried (SBF) receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve, for any crime of which he is convicted, by Joseph Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Liz Cheney receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve by Joseph Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Liz Cheney

This market will resolve to "Yes" if founder of Silk Road Ross William Ulbricht, aka Dread Pirate Roberts, receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve, for any crime of which he is convicted, by Joe Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden to issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Ross Ulbricht

This market will resolve to "Yes" if James Brian "Jim" Biden receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve by Joseph Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Jim Biden

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve by President Joseph Biden before the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Donald Trump

This market will resolve to "Yes" if P Diddy receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve by Joseph Biden before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Diddy

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Julian Assange receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve, for any crime of which he is convicted, by Joseph Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Julian Assange

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Edward Snowden receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve by Joseph Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Edward Snowden

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Adam Schiff receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve by Joseph Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Adam Schiff

Who will Biden pardon?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame in 2025?

This market will resolve to "No" if any of the listed people receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

The listed individuals are: 
- Diddy
- Ghislaine Maxwell
- Sam Bankman-Fried
- Elizabeth Holmes
- Derek Chauvin

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Nothing Ever Happens: Trump Pardon Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Changpeng Zhao and Roger Ver receive a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump Crypto Pardon Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump for any charges by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Maduro by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden, Jill Biden, Beau Biden, Hunter Biden, Ashley Biden, James "Jim" Biden, Sara Biden, Valerie Biden Owens, John Owens or Francis "Frank" Biden serve any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between March 17 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Biden family member?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy,  Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden is arrested between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Joe Biden arrested by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration (including any federal court) publicly releases previously unreleased files pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein which contain any mention of the listed individual between November 18 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only previously unreleased files which contain novel material not previously available to the public will qualify. Documents that are merely re-released, have had redactions removed, repackaged, or newly publicized versions of already available information do not qualify.

Any mention of the listed individual in connection with Jeffrey Epstein will qualify, regardless of if connected to nefarious or illegal activities.

Previously unreleased files is inclusive of any written, audio, photo or video documentation (e.g., qualifying photos which depict the listed individual will count).

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse Andy Barr for KY-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

In November 2025, Donald Trump indicated his intent to urge the United States Justice Department to investigate alleged ties between Jeffrey Epstein and Bill Clinton. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-he-will-ask-justice-department-probe-epstein-ties-with-bill-clinton-2025-11-14/)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bill Clinton is indicted on federal charges or otherwise formally charged with any federal crime by the United States of America between November 14, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Bill Clinton be federally indicted by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Jerome Powell federally charged in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the candidate Bernie Sanders announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election.

If Bernie Sanders does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Bernie Sanders or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Bernie Sanders' endorsement.

Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

Trump's Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has floated the idea of Trump naming a successor to Jerome Powell to serve as a "shadow chair", prior to the end of Powell's term, scheduled for May 2026. (see: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/business/money-report/fed-chair-jerome-powell-can-serve-remainder-of-term-says-trumps-treasury-pick-bessent/3788991/).

This market will resolve to according the individual Donald Trump announces as his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No announcement by December 31".  

The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between July 22 (inclusive) and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Jerome Powell in jail in 2025

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual is formally charged or criminally indicted for insider trading related to a tariff policy announcement made during the second Trump administration between July 11 and December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will anyone be charged for insider trading Trump tariff announcements?

This market will resolve according to the next person Donald Trump appoints to the National Security Advisor position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on Trump's first announcement - if Trump announces another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

This market refers to the first permanent National Security Advisor following Mike Waltz's departure from the role; any acting advisor or otherwise temporary advisor will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Michael Flynn be next National Security Advisor?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual  will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between July 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Obama in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Trump says Fuck, Fucking, or Fucked 
- House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution
- Trump declares another national emergency

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here: 
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Panick+in+the+White+House.pdf

Panick in the White House

 This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referenced John Bolton serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between August 25, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


John Bolton in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration publicly releases any files pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein, which weren’t previously public by the listed date  (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying file must contain substantive information pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein. 

The following will qualify: 
-Previously released documents in which redactions containing new substantive content such as names of associates or practices directly pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein were removed. 
-Documents that weren’t previously public and contain information pertaining to  the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein, even if that information was already known from previous releases (e.g. a previously unreleased document pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein which mentions Ghislaine Maxwell will qualify even if the information itself isn’t novel) 

The following will not qualify:
-Trivial metadata-only releases, duplicative redactions, or administrative cover sheets without substantive content.
-Files which were created after the start of the Trump Administration (January 20, 2025, 12:00 PM ET).
-Announcements of declassifications or releases that are not implemented within this market's timeframe.
-Releases made exclusively by federal courts (including unsealings), Congress or its committees, state or local governments, private entities, or leaks not officially attributable to the Executive Branch.
-Releases made by non-Executive entities, even if based on Executive Branch filings or requests.
-Court-ordered FOIA disclosures or FOIA litigation records provided by a court.
-Leaked, unofficial, or anonymously sourced disclosures will not qualify 

For a release to qualify, the Executive Branch must itself publish the files to the public, such as through an official website, public press release, or FOIA reading room. Transmissions to Congress, courts, or other non-Executive entities do not qualify unless the Executive Branch subsequently makes the files publicly accessible.

FOIA responses qualify only if the Executive Branch agency itself publicly releases the responsive files. FOIA disclosures published by courts as part of litigation do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the second individual that ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Nicolás Maduro be the next leader out before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public
- Trump out as President
- Trump impeached
- Any Trump cabinet member out

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Trump-Epstein+Parlay.pdf

Trump-Epstein Parlay

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Julian Sayin is awarded the Heisman Trophy for the 2025-26 NCAA Football season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Heisman Trophy Trust.

Will Julian Sayin win the Heisman Trophy?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Laura Loomer to his administration by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Laura Loomer join Trump administration by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is awarded the 2025–26 regular season NBA Most Valuable Player (MVP) Award. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 NBA MVP award, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

This market will resolve "Yes" if the bill listed is signed into law by the President of the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A bill will only qualify if it receives the President’s signature and becomes law through the normal legislative process. Vetoed bills, bills passed only by one chamber, or those that fail to reach the President’s desk, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official information from Congress.gov or the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if ambiguity arises.

Will the Guidance Clarity Act of 2025 (S.81) be signed into law by December 31 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Eric Adams to his administration by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Eric Adams join Trump administration by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell publicly accuses Donald Trump of criminal wrongdoing between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, she must explicitly state that Trump committed one or more specific crimes, or clearly refer to him as a criminal and Trump must be named directly.

The accusation must be made Maxwell and made public within the specified date range. 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ghislaine Maxwell accuses Trump of being a criminal?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Han Duck-soo is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for charges related to the 2024 South Korean political crisis, including but not limited to allegations of failure to promulgate legislation, obstruction of constitutional processes, or other criminal acts stemming from his actions as Acting President and Prime Minister by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will remain open through 2026 regardless of whether Han Duck-soo's initial sentencing includes prison.  Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Han Duck-soo be sentenced to prison before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count.

Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position.

Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Who will Biden pardon?

Donald Trump
$6,028,443 Vol.
No

Fauci
$1,735,203 Vol.
Yes

Liz Cheney
$1,792,507 Vol.
Yes

SBF
$8,209,071 Vol.
No

Adam Kinzinger
$92,678 Vol.
Yes

Jim Biden
$3,115,190 Vol.
Yes

Hillary Clinton
$812,585 Vol.
No

Adam Schiff
$770,038 Vol.
Yes

Edward Snowden
$222,488 Vol.
No

Julian Assange
$510,391 Vol.
No

Ross Ulbricht
$1,401,485 Vol.
No

Diddy
$819,435 Vol.
No

Market Context

Who will Biden pardon?

Rules

Who will Biden pardon?

Market Context

Who will Biden pardon?

About

Related

Who will Biden pardon?

Donald Trump$6,028,443 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Fauci$1,735,203 Vol.Yescircle check

Liz Cheney$1,792,507 Vol.Yescircle check

SBF$8,209,071 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Adam Kinzinger$92,678 Vol.Yescircle check

Jim Biden$3,115,190 Vol.Yescircle check

Hillary Clinton$812,585 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Adam Schiff$770,038 Vol.Yescircle check

Edward Snowden$222,488 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Julian Assange$510,391 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Ross Ulbricht$1,401,485 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Diddy$819,435 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

Who will Biden pardon?

Rules

Who will Biden pardon?

Market Context

Who will Biden pardon?

About

Related

Donald Trump
$6,028,443 Vol.
No

Fauci
$1,735,203 Vol.
Yes

Liz Cheney
$1,792,507 Vol.
Yes

SBF
$8,209,071 Vol.
No

Adam Kinzinger
$92,678 Vol.
Yes

Jim Biden
$3,115,190 Vol.
Yes

Hillary Clinton
$812,585 Vol.
No

Adam Schiff
$770,038 Vol.
Yes

Edward Snowden
$222,488 Vol.
No

Julian Assange
$510,391 Vol.
No

Ross Ulbricht
$1,401,485 Vol.
No

Diddy
$819,435 Vol.
No