Market icon

Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Dec 31

Kristi Noem 27.7%

Pam Bondi 17.5%

Howard Lutnick 9.9%

None before 2027 9.6%

$1,769,173 Vol.

Rules

This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.

An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.

If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$1,769,173
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Dec 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Beware of external links.

Market icon

Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Dec 31

Kristi Noem 27.7%

Pam Bondi 17.5%

Howard Lutnick 9.9%

None before 2027 9.6%

$1,769,173 Vol.

Kristi Noem

$186,473 Vol.

28%

Pam Bondi

$340,032 Vol.

18%

Howard Lutnick

$48,069 Vol.

10%

None before 2027

$143,662 Vol.

10%

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

$44,769 Vol.

6%

Pete Hegseth

$55,594 Vol.

5%

Stephen Miran

$22,199 Vol.

4%

Marco Rubio

$78,111 Vol.

3%

Tulsi Gabbard

$24,509 Vol.

2%

Sean Duffy

$46,860 Vol.

2%

Chris Wright

$19,109 Vol.

1%

Brooke Rollins

$15,571 Vol.

1%

Scott Bessent

$27,350 Vol.

1%

Susie Wiles

$48,768 Vol.

1%

John Ratcliffe

$101,298 Vol.

1%

Kelly Loeffler

$53,262 Vol.

1%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$17,936 Vol.

1%

Mike Waltz

$44,659 Vol.

1%

Russell T. Vought

$44,754 Vol.

1%

Jamieson Greer

$54,210 Vol.

1%

Lee Zeldin

$37,729 Vol.

1%

J.D. Vance

$73,781 Vol.

1%

Scott Turner

$60,845 Vol.

1%

Doug Collins

$84,542 Vol.

1%

Linda McMahon

$14,245 Vol.

1%

Doug Burgum

$80,837 Vol.

1%

About

Volume
$1,769,173
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Dec 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Related

Market icon

duplicate Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

40%
Market icon

Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2026?

90%
Market icon

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

7%

Beware of external links.