Market icon
Politics·Trump

Who visited Epstein's Island?

Market icon
Politics·Trump

Who visited Epstein's Island?

$1,590,734 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$1,590,734 Vol.

Polymarket

Richard Branson

$51,377 Vol.

30%

Kevin Spacey

$27,848 Vol.

14%

Woody Allen

$12,803 Vol.

14%

Steve Bannon

$57,934 Vol.

12%

Steven Tisch

$4,728 Vol.

10%

Deepak Chopra

$11,327 Vol.

10%

Bill Clinton

$261,442 Vol.

6%

Bill Cosby

$8,860 Vol.

5%

Michael Jackson

$153,738 Vol.

5%

Bill Gates

$99,082 Vol.

5%

Noam Chomsky

$25,646 Vol.

5%

Harvey Weinstein

$18,526 Vol.

5%

Hillary Clinton

$39,800 Vol.

4%

Donald Trump

$131,927 Vol.

3%

Peter Attia

$6,969 Vol.

3%

Jay-Z

$576,834 Vol.

3%

Elon Musk

$80,807 Vol.

2%

Marco Rubio

$21,645 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if evidence is made public confirming that the listed individual previously visited Little St. James by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes but is not limited to flight logs, photographs, videos, court records, or sworn testimony that clearly place the listed individual on the island. Public confirmation from the listed individual that they visited Little St. James will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution. If any release of Epstein-related files is carried out by the United States federal government within 48 hours of this market's resolution time, this market will remain open for 48 hours after the resolution time to allow for evidence of visits to Little St. James to be investigated. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. Department of Justice releases of millions of Epstein investigation files in late January and February 2026, including flight manifests to Little Saint James, financial ledgers, and emails, have driven fragmented trader consensus on Polymarket, with frontrunners like Richard Branson (around 20%) and Steve Bannon (18%) reflecting low-confidence bets amid unverified associations. Confirmed developments, such as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick admitting a 2012 island lunch visit and emails referencing Elon Musk's potential trip, contrast with widespread denials, fueling uncertainty over definitive evidence distinguishing island stays from other Epstein properties. Ongoing file analyses and potential congressional reviews could shift probabilities before the market's July resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if evidence is made public confirming that the listed individual previously visited Little St. James by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes but is not limited to flight logs, photographs, videos, court records, or sworn testimony that clearly place the listed individual on the island. Public confirmation from the listed individual that they visited Little St. James will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

If any release of Epstein-related files is carried out by the United States federal government within 48 hours of this market's resolution time, this market will remain open for 48 hours after the resolution time to allow for evidence of visits to Little St. James to be investigated.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,590,734
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 12, 2026, 5:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if evidence is made public confirming that the listed individual previously visited Little St. James by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes but is not limited to flight logs, photographs, videos, court records, or sworn testimony that clearly place the listed individual on the island. Public confirmation from the listed individual that they visited Little St. James will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution. If any release of Epstein-related files is carried out by the United States federal government within 48 hours of this market's resolution time, this market will remain open for 48 hours after the resolution time to allow for evidence of visits to Little St. James to be investigated. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if evidence is made public confirming that the listed individual previously visited Little St. James by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes but is not limited to flight logs, photographs, videos, court records, or sworn testimony that clearly place the listed individual on the island. Public confirmation from the listed individual that they visited Little St. James will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution. If any release of Epstein-related files is carried out by the United States federal government within 48 hours of this market's resolution time, this market will remain open for 48 hours after the resolution time to allow for evidence of visits to Little St. James to be investigated. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. Department of Justice releases of millions of Epstein investigation files in late January and February 2026, including flight manifests to Little Saint James, financial ledgers, and emails, have driven fragmented trader consensus on Polymarket, with frontrunners like Richard Branson (around 20%) and Steve Bannon (18%) reflecting low-confidence bets amid unverified associations. Confirmed developments, such as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick admitting a 2012 island lunch visit and emails referencing Elon Musk's potential trip, contrast with widespread denials, fueling uncertainty over definitive evidence distinguishing island stays from other Epstein properties. Ongoing file analyses and potential congressional reviews could shift probabilities before the market's July resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if evidence is made public confirming that the listed individual previously visited Little St. James by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes but is not limited to flight logs, photographs, videos, court records, or sworn testimony that clearly place the listed individual on the island. Public confirmation from the listed individual that they visited Little St. James will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

If any release of Epstein-related files is carried out by the United States federal government within 48 hours of this market's resolution time, this market will remain open for 48 hours after the resolution time to allow for evidence of visits to Little St. James to be investigated.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,590,734
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 12, 2026, 5:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if evidence is made public confirming that the listed individual previously visited Little St. James by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes but is not limited to flight logs, photographs, videos, court records, or sworn testimony that clearly place the listed individual on the island. Public confirmation from the listed individual that they visited Little St. James will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution. If any release of Epstein-related files is carried out by the United States federal government within 48 hours of this market's resolution time, this market will remain open for 48 hours after the resolution time to allow for evidence of visits to Little St. James to be investigated. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Who visited Epstein's Island?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 18 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Richard Branson" at 30%, followed by "Kevin Spacey" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 30¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who visited Epstein's Island?" has generated $1.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who visited Epstein's Island?," browse the 18 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who visited Epstein's Island?" is "Richard Branson" at 30%, meaning the market assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Kevin Spacey" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who visited Epstein's Island?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.