US banking stability persists after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's (FDIC) seizure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust on January 30, 2026—the sole failure thus far, costing the Deposit Insurance Fund $19.7 million—amid $306 billion in system-wide unrealized losses reported in the FDIC's March 2026 data and 60 institutions on the problem bank list, up from 57 in Q4 2025. Elevated Federal Reserve policy rates exacerbate commercial real estate (CRE) distress, with $900 billion in debt maturities looming this year, alongside private credit fund redemption pressures totaling $1.8 trillion in assets under management. Traders weigh these tail risks against robust capital buffers and low historical failure rates (two in 2025), with key catalysts including Q1 earnings releases through late April, May FOMC policy signals, and June stress tests that could shift sentiment on regional lenders' CRE exposures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$441,805 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
KeyBank
47%
BNY
3%
Bank of America
3%
Truist
3%
Lloyds
3%
Morgan Stanley
3%
BMO
3%
RBC
3%
Santander
2%
HSBC
2%
Citigroup
2%
UBS
2%
Deutsche Bank
2%
Scotiabank
1%
JPMorgan Chase
1%
Goldman Sachs
1%
BNP Paribas
1%
Wells Fargo
48%
US Bank
48%
$441,805 Vol.
KeyBank
$83 Vol.
47%
BNY
$5 Vol.
3%
Bank of America
$323 Vol.
3%
Truist
$23 Vol.
3%
Lloyds
$24 Vol.
3%
Morgan Stanley
$277 Vol.
3%
BMO
$16 Vol.
3%
RBC
$0 Vol.
3%
Santander
$24 Vol.
2%
HSBC
$38,513 Vol.
2%
Citigroup
$9,179 Vol.
2%
UBS
$30,973 Vol.
2%
Deutsche Bank
$153,000 Vol.
2%
Scotiabank
$46,849 Vol.
1%
JPMorgan Chase
$110,485 Vol.
1%
Goldman Sachs
$29,422 Vol.
1%
BNP Paribas
$22,317 Vol.
1%
Wells Fargo
$166 Vol.
48%
US Bank
$127 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US banking stability persists after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's (FDIC) seizure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust on January 30, 2026—the sole failure thus far, costing the Deposit Insurance Fund $19.7 million—amid $306 billion in system-wide unrealized losses reported in the FDIC's March 2026 data and 60 institutions on the problem bank list, up from 57 in Q4 2025. Elevated Federal Reserve policy rates exacerbate commercial real estate (CRE) distress, with $900 billion in debt maturities looming this year, alongside private credit fund redemption pressures totaling $1.8 trillion in assets under management. Traders weigh these tail risks against robust capital buffers and low historical failure rates (two in 2025), with key catalysts including Q1 earnings releases through late April, May FOMC policy signals, and June stress tests that could shift sentiment on regional lenders' CRE exposures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 30, 2025, 9:50 PM ET
Volume
$441,805End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 30, 2025, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US banking stability persists after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's (FDIC) seizure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust on January 30, 2026—the sole failure thus far, costing the Deposit Insurance Fund $19.7 million—amid $306 billion in system-wide unrealized losses reported in the FDIC's March 2026 data and 60 institutions on the problem bank list, up from 57 in Q4 2025. Elevated Federal Reserve policy rates exacerbate commercial real estate (CRE) distress, with $900 billion in debt maturities looming this year, alongside private credit fund redemption pressures totaling $1.8 trillion in assets under management. Traders weigh these tail risks against robust capital buffers and low historical failure rates (two in 2025), with key catalysts including Q1 earnings releases through late April, May FOMC policy signals, and June stress tests that could shift sentiment on regional lenders' CRE exposures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$441,805End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 30, 2025, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US banking stability persists after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's (FDIC) seizure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust on January 30, 2026—the sole failure thus far, costing the Deposit Insurance Fund $19.7 million—amid $306 billion in system-wide unrealized losses reported in the FDIC's March 2026 data and 60 institutions on the problem bank list, up from 57 in Q4 2025. Elevated Federal Reserve policy rates exacerbate commercial real estate (CRE) distress, with $900 billion in debt maturities looming this year, alongside private credit fund redemption pressures totaling $1.8 trillion in assets under management. Traders weigh these tail risks against robust capital buffers and low historical failure rates (two in 2025), with key catalysts including Q1 earnings releases through late April, May FOMC policy signals, and June stress tests that could shift sentiment on regional lenders' CRE exposures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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