Pakistan leads trader consensus at 45.5% implied probability for hosting the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting, driven by Islamabad's recent offer in late May to serve as a neutral venue amid escalating regional tensions, including Iran's April drone and missile strikes on Israel and subsequent US responses. No meeting by June 30 at 22.5% reflects persistent obstacles like stalled nuclear negotiations, US sanctions, and Iran's hardline stance under President Raisi, with indirect talks last held in Oman in early April. Turkey ranks third at 9.7% due to President Erdogan's longstanding mediation proposals, while traditional sites like Oman (5.5%) and Switzerland (5.2%) trail amid uncertainty over scheduling before the deadline. Traders weigh diplomatic signals against risks of further escalation or US election-year caution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWhere will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
Pakistan 46%
No Meeting by June 30 23%
Turkey 9.7%
Oman 5.5%
$140,604 Vol.
$140,604 Vol.
Pakistan
46%
No Meeting by June 30
23%
Turkey
10%
Oman
5%
Switzerland
5%
Qatar
4%
Egypt
3%
Other
2%
UAE
2%
Austria
1%
Other - Europe
1%
USA
1%
Russia
<1%
Iran
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Kazakhstan
<1%
Iraq
<1%
Other - Middle East/North Africa
<1%
Italy
<1%
Pakistan 46%
No Meeting by June 30 23%
Turkey 9.7%
Oman 5.5%
$140,604 Vol.
$140,604 Vol.
Pakistan
46%
No Meeting by June 30
23%
Turkey
10%
Oman
5%
Switzerland
5%
Qatar
4%
Egypt
3%
Other
2%
UAE
2%
Austria
1%
Other - Europe
1%
USA
1%
Russia
<1%
Iran
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Kazakhstan
<1%
Iraq
<1%
Other - Middle East/North Africa
<1%
Italy
<1%
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Pakistan leads trader consensus at 45.5% implied probability for hosting the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting, driven by Islamabad's recent offer in late May to serve as a neutral venue amid escalating regional tensions, including Iran's April drone and missile strikes on Israel and subsequent US responses. No meeting by June 30 at 22.5% reflects persistent obstacles like stalled nuclear negotiations, US sanctions, and Iran's hardline stance under President Raisi, with indirect talks last held in Oman in early April. Turkey ranks third at 9.7% due to President Erdogan's longstanding mediation proposals, while traditional sites like Oman (5.5%) and Switzerland (5.2%) trail amid uncertainty over scheduling before the deadline. Traders weigh diplomatic signals against risks of further escalation or US election-year caution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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