President Trump's frequent public statements on the ongoing U.S. military operations against Iran have dominated trader focus throughout March 2026, with addresses claiming major successes like sinking Iran's naval power, eliminating leadership, and nearing completion of objectives amid rising domestic fuel prices. Key events included a March 26 cabinet meeting, March 31 executive order signing, and press gaggles referencing NATO withdrawal threats and allies securing their own oil supplies. Truth Social posts and speeches are scrutinized for exact phrasing of market-listed terms, such as potential "third term" allusions in a disputed late-March video now under final review. Resolution depends on verifiable mentions by March 31, 11:59 PM ET, reflecting traders' close parsing of his rhetorical style in high-stakes foreign policy updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$992,955 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Third term
<1%
$992,955 Vol.
Third term
$807,025 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market.
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.President Trump's frequent public statements on the ongoing U.S. military operations against Iran have dominated trader focus throughout March 2026, with addresses claiming major successes like sinking Iran's naval power, eliminating leadership, and nearing completion of objectives amid rising domestic fuel prices. Key events included a March 26 cabinet meeting, March 31 executive order signing, and press gaggles referencing NATO withdrawal threats and allies securing their own oil supplies. Truth Social posts and speeches are scrutinized for exact phrasing of market-listed terms, such as potential "third term" allusions in a disputed late-March video now under final review. Resolution depends on verifiable mentions by March 31, 11:59 PM ET, reflecting traders' close parsing of his rhetorical style in high-stakes foreign policy updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market.
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market.
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Market Opened: Feb 26, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Volume
$992,955End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market.
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.President Trump's frequent public statements on the ongoing U.S. military operations against Iran have dominated trader focus throughout March 2026, with addresses claiming major successes like sinking Iran's naval power, eliminating leadership, and nearing completion of objectives amid rising domestic fuel prices. Key events included a March 26 cabinet meeting, March 31 executive order signing, and press gaggles referencing NATO withdrawal threats and allies securing their own oil supplies. Truth Social posts and speeches are scrutinized for exact phrasing of market-listed terms, such as potential "third term" allusions in a disputed late-March video now under final review. Resolution depends on verifiable mentions by March 31, 11:59 PM ET, reflecting traders' close parsing of his rhetorical style in high-stakes foreign policy updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market.
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market.
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Volume
$992,955End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
President Trump's frequent public statements on the ongoing U.S. military operations against Iran have dominated trader focus throughout March 2026, with addresses claiming major successes like sinking Iran's naval power, eliminating leadership, and nearing completion of objectives amid rising domestic fuel prices. Key events included a March 26 cabinet meeting, March 31 executive order signing, and press gaggles referencing NATO withdrawal threats and allies securing their own oil supplies. Truth Social posts and speeches are scrutinized for exact phrasing of market-listed terms, such as potential "third term" allusions in a disputed late-March video now under final review. Resolution depends on verifiable mentions by March 31, 11:59 PM ET, reflecting traders' close parsing of his rhetorical style in high-stakes foreign policy updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions