Market icon
Politics·Mentions

What will Trump say in March?

Market icon
Politics·Mentions

What will Trump say in March?

$1,115,168 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,115,168 Vol.

Polymarket

Third term

$929,238 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market. A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.President Trump's frequent public appearances in March 2026—including a March 9 press conference at Trump National Doral Miami, meetings with German Chancellor Merz on March 3, remarks at the FII PRIORITY Summit on March 27, an executive order signing on March 31, and addresses on U.S.-Israel military actions against Iran—drove trader analysis of exact phrasing in verified transcripts. Confirmed mentions of "Bitcoin" amid pro-crypto executive actions and "Barack Hussein Obama" in political commentary solidified high trader consensus on those outcomes, while quirky phrases like "liberation day" or "n-word" saw low probabilities absent evidence. A disputed "third term" clip from late March remains under review using C-SPAN and White House sources, with final resolution imminent post-March 31 cutoff.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market.

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Volume
$1,115,168
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 6:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market. A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market. A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.President Trump's frequent public appearances in March 2026—including a March 9 press conference at Trump National Doral Miami, meetings with German Chancellor Merz on March 3, remarks at the FII PRIORITY Summit on March 27, an executive order signing on March 31, and addresses on U.S.-Israel military actions against Iran—drove trader analysis of exact phrasing in verified transcripts. Confirmed mentions of "Bitcoin" amid pro-crypto executive actions and "Barack Hussein Obama" in political commentary solidified high trader consensus on those outcomes, while quirky phrases like "liberation day" or "n-word" saw low probabilities absent evidence. A disputed "third term" clip from late March remains under review using C-SPAN and White House sources, with final resolution imminent post-March 31 cutoff.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market.

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Volume
$1,115,168
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 6:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market. A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will Trump say in March?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 32 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Barack Hussein Obama" at 100%, followed by "Bitcoin" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will Trump say in March?" has generated $1.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will Trump say in March?," browse the 32 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will Trump say in March?" is "Barack Hussein Obama" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Bitcoin" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will Trump say in March?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.