Name: What will Trump say during Albuquerque, NM rally?
Start: 2024-10-30T18:39:15.444306Z
End: 2024-10-31T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on predicting the statements and topics addressed by Trump during his rally in Albuquerque, NM.

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Albuquerque, New Mexico (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-albuquerque-new-mexico).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "border" 20 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "border" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a political boundary between nations.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.


Border 20+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Albuquerque, New Mexico (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-albuquerque-new-mexico).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "border" 30 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "border" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a political boundary between nations.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.


Border 30+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Albuquerque, New Mexico (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-albuquerque-new-mexico).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Kamala" 20 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Kamala" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the person Kamala Harris.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Kamala 20+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Albuquerque, New Mexico (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-albuquerque-new-mexico).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Tax" 15 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "tax" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a compulsory financial charge imposed by a government authority.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Tax 15+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Albuquerque, New Mexico (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-albuquerque-new-mexico).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "China" 8 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "China" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the East Asian country officially named People's Republic of China.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

China 8+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Albuquerque, New Mexico (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-albuquerque-new-mexico).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Hispanic" 3 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "hispanic" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to relating to Spain or to Spanish-speaking countries, especially those of Latin America.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Hispanic 3+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Albuquerque, New Mexico (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-albuquerque-new-mexico).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "American dream" 3 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

American dream 3+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Albuquerque, New Mexico (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-albuquerque-new-mexico).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Biden" 8 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Biden" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the person Joe Biden or a member of the Biden family.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Biden 8+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Albuquerque, New Mexico (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-albuquerque-new-mexico).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "crypto" or "Bitcoin" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to decentralized cryptocurrency (e.g. "cryptocurrency-related" counts).

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Crypto/Bitcoin

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Albuquerque, New Mexico (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-albuquerque-new-mexico).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "rig" or "rigged" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "rig" or "rigged" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to managing or conducting (something) fraudulently so as to produce a result or situation that is advantageous to a particular person.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Rig/Rigged

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Albuquerque, New Mexico (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-albuquerque-new-mexico).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Puerto Rico" or "Puerto Rican" more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Puerto Rico/Rican

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Albuquerque, New Mexico (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-albuquerque-new-mexico).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "garbage" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "garbage" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a thing that is considered worthless or meaningless.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Garbage

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Albuquerque, New Mexico (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-albuquerque-new-mexico).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Native American" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Native American

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Albuquerque, New Mexico (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-albuquerque-new-mexico).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "ICE" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "ICE" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency. 

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Albuquerque, New Mexico (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-albuquerque-new-mexico).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Vote" 20 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "vote" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a formal indication of a choice between two or more candidates or courses of action, expressed typically through a ballot or a show of hands or by voice.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Vote 20+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Albuquerque, New Mexico (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-albuquerque-new-mexico).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Halloween" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Halloween" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the holiday celebrated on October 31.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Halloween

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Albuquerque, New Mexico (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-albuquerque-new-mexico).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Paper clip" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Paper clip

What will Trump say during Albuquerque, NM rally?

The 2025 Albuquerque mayoral election will be held on November 4, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Albuquerque.

Will Tim Keller win the 2025 Albuquerque mayoral election?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New Mexico gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the New Mexico governor race in 2026?

Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in events with the Prime Minister of Hungary on November 7, 2025 (see https://www.reuters.com/world/hungarys-orban-visit-trump-discuss-path-us-russia-meeting-2025-10-30/ rcna235637/rcrd90100).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at events featuring the Prime Minister of Hungary on November 7, 2025. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring both Donald Trump and the Prime Minister of Hungary (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). All such scheduled events featuring both on this date count. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events, or which feature one named individual but not the other, will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the events contain a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by November 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Easiest" during Hungary PM events on November 7?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump announces that he is running for a third term as US President by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Trump must definitively state his intent to run (e.g., "I am running for a third term" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice. 

Past statements such his March 30 NBC phone interview where he stated "There are methods which you could do it, as you know... A lot of people want me to do it." or his November 13, 2024, where he stated "I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out.’" would NOT qualify. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Donald Trump (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump announce run for 3rd term?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse Steve Hilton in CA-Gov for Nov 2 2026 ET?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Benjamin Netanyahu personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

This includes calling Netanyahu weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, or using other derogatory language. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

Any public statement made by Trump qualifies.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump publicly disparage Netanyahu by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?

Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in events with the President of Syria on November 10, 2025 (see https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/02/us/politics/syrian-president-al-shara-washington-visit.html).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at events featuring the President of Syria on November 10, 2025. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring both Donald Trump and the President of Syria (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). All such scheduled events featuring both on this date count. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events, or which feature one named individual but not the other, will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the events contain a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by November 10, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Donald Trump say "Sanction" 2+ times during Syria President events on November 10?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration takes a formal action or makes an official announcement directing the deployment of National Guard troops to the listed city by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying announcement or action will count, regardless of if/when the deployment actually occurs, or if the deployment is delayed, suspended, or subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions.

Qualifying actions include but are not limited to:
- A Presidential action (e.g., Executive Order, Presidential Memorandum) that directs or announces National Guard deployment to the listed city.
- An official White House/DoD/National Guard Bureau press release, fact sheet, or order explicitly stating that National Guard troops will be deployed to the listed city.
- A Secretary of Defense or NGB directive/order that calls up or assigns National Guard forces to the listed city, including under Title 32 (state control with federal funding) or Title 10 (federalized).
- An official federal announcement that specific state Guard units (including the listed city National Guard or out-of-state Guard) are being sent to the listed city.

Non-qualifying actions include:
- Informal announcements/social media posts which do not constitute a formal policy announcement 
- Ambiguous remarks, “we’re considering it,” broad statements like “ready to go anywhere,” or contingent plans without a clear directive to the listed city.
- Generic posture changes (e.g., standing up quick-reaction forces “nationwide”) that do not explicitly name the listed city as a deployment location.
- A state-only activation by the listed city's state Governor without any official Trump administration action or announcement about sending the Guard to the listed city.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump send the national guard to Seattle by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that lowers, pauses, delays, or removes any tariffs on imports from Mexico by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Actions that lower, pause, delay, or remove any tariffs on Mexican imports will qualify, including changes to the reciprocal tariff, or any other existing or new tariffs specifically targeting Mexican goods.

Only the removal of tariffs specifically targeting Mexico will qualify. For example, the removal of the 10% general tariff on all imports into the U.S., or a tariff on specific Mexican provinces or entities, will not count toward this market’s resolution.

Item-specific tariff exemptions, such as those outlined in the U.S. Customs and Border Protection notice dated April 11, 2025, which excluded 25 HTSUS codes covering electronics, will not qualify.

Any action officially enacted within the market’s time frame will qualify, regardless of when the change goes into effect.

This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information from major news outlets or government statements will also be used.

Will Trump lower tariffs on Mexico by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 3, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and November 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Nvidia" this week? (November 3 - 9)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 10, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and November 16, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say “MAGA" or "Make America Great Again” this week? (November 10 - 16)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly claims that any of the moon landings were faked by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The claim must come directly from Trump via a verified social media account, official public statement, or during a recorded interview, speech, or rally. Indirect remarks, jokes, or quotes taken out of context will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be statements made by Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used to confirm the legitimacy of such statements.

Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025?

On September 1, 2025, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration may declare a national housing emergency this fall to address high housing costs.(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bessent-says-trump-administration-will-tackle-high-housing-costs-with-new-2025-09-01/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (NEA) primarily addressing housing by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A national emergency must actually be declared for this market to resolve to "Yes" - it will not be enough for Trump to announce an intention to declare a national emergency.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.

Will Trump announce a national housing emergency in 2025?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits North Korea between August 4 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025?

Former president Joe Biden is scheduled to appear at the Ben Nelson Gala in Omaha on November 7, 2025, at 9 PM ET. You can read more about that here: https://www.ketv.com/article/omaha-president-joe-biden-ben-nelson-gala/69279471

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden says the listed term during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Biden is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this appearance is definitively cancelled by Joe Biden or the Ben Nelson Gala, or otherwise is not released by November 8, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the appearance has not aired in its entirety by November 8, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point.

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution. Transcripts will not count.

Will Joe Biden say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during his appearance at the Ben Nelson Gala on November 7?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" in November?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump, the US government, or US armed forces announces that US armed forces conducted a new strike against any watercraft designated as a narco terrorist target between November 7, 11:30 AM ET, and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any announcement made within this market's timeframe of a qualifying, previously unannounced strike will count, regardless of whether the strike occurred within this market's timeframe.

A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces at a qualifying watercraft that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.

A boarding or the use of small arms fire will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source will be official information from the US government or armed forces, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 14?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit China by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (NEA) between October 1, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A national emergency must actually be declared for this market to resolve to "Yes" - it will not be enough for Trump to announce an intention to declare a national emergency.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.

Trump declares another national emergency by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of Venezuela Nicolás Maduro talks with Donald Trump between October 15 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

A talk is defined as any interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Trump says Fuck, Fucking, or Fucked 
- House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution
- Trump declares another national emergency

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here: 
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Panick+in+the+White+House.pdf

Panick in the White House

If Donald J. Trump visits Israel by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Israel. Whether or not Trump enters Israeli airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Trump, information released by his verified social media accounts, and official information from Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit Israel again by Dec 31?

This market will resolve according to the next person Donald Trump appoints to the National Security Advisor position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on Trump's first announcement - if Trump announces another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

This market refers to the first permanent National Security Advisor following Mike Waltz's departure from the role; any acting advisor or otherwise temporary advisor will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Steve Witkoff be next National Security Advisor?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.

Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2025?

Trump's Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has floated the idea of Trump naming a successor to Jerome Powell to serve as a "shadow chair", prior to the end of Powell's term, scheduled for May 2026. (see: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/business/money-report/fed-chair-jerome-powell-can-serve-remainder-of-term-says-trumps-treasury-pick-bessent/3788991/).

This market will resolve to according the individual Donald Trump announces as his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No announcement by December 31".  

The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. 

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. 

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Stephen A. Smith announces that he is running for President in the 2028 U.S. presidential election by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Stephen A. Smith must definitively state his intent to run (e.g., "I am running for President" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Stephen A. Smith (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Stephen A. Smith announce Presidential run in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump golfs on over 25% of days between January 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to https://trumpgolftrack.com as of January 2, 2026, 12:00 PM. However, definitive photo or video evidence confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to supplement the tally if the trumpgolftrack.com tally is incomplete. 

 


What will Trump say during Albuquerque, NM rally?

Puerto Rico/Rican
$14,465 Vol.
No

Vote 20+ times
$29,867 Vol.
Yes

Garbage
$21,228 Vol.
Yes

Border 20+ times
$15,399 Vol.
Yes

Border 30+ times
$35,503 Vol.
No

Kamala 20+ times
$10,819 Vol.
Yes

Tax 15+ times
$7,102 Vol.
No

China 8+ times
$7,334 Vol.
Yes

Biden 8+ times
$11,007 Vol.
Yes

American dream 3+ times
$25,188 Vol.
Yes

Hispanic 3+ times
$15,728 Vol.
Yes

Crypto/Bitcoin
$193,393 Vol.
No

Rig/Rigged
$15,161 Vol.
Yes

Native American
$6,761 Vol.
No

ICE
$10,704 Vol.
Yes

Halloween
$15,225 Vol.
No

Paper clip
$7,985 Vol.
No

Market Context

What will Trump say during Albuquerque, NM rally?

Rules

What will Trump say during Albuquerque, NM rally?

Market Context

What will Trump say during Albuquerque, NM rally?

About

Related

What will Trump say during Albuquerque, NM rally?

Puerto Rico/Rican$14,465 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Vote 20+ times$29,867 Vol.Yescircle check

Garbage$21,228 Vol.Yescircle check

Border 20+ times$15,399 Vol.Yescircle check

Border 30+ times$35,503 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Kamala 20+ times$10,819 Vol.Yescircle check

Tax 15+ times$7,102 Vol.Nocircle xmark

China 8+ times$7,334 Vol.Yescircle check

Biden 8+ times$11,007 Vol.Yescircle check

American dream 3+ times$25,188 Vol.Yescircle check

Hispanic 3+ times$15,728 Vol.Yescircle check

Crypto/Bitcoin$193,393 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Rig/Rigged$15,161 Vol.Yescircle check

Native American$6,761 Vol.Nocircle xmark

ICE$10,704 Vol.Yescircle check

Halloween$15,225 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Paper clip$7,985 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

What will Trump say during Albuquerque, NM rally?

Rules

What will Trump say during Albuquerque, NM rally?

Market Context

What will Trump say during Albuquerque, NM rally?

About

Related

Puerto Rico/Rican
$14,465 Vol.
No

Vote 20+ times
$29,867 Vol.
Yes

Garbage
$21,228 Vol.
Yes

Border 20+ times
$15,399 Vol.
Yes

Border 30+ times
$35,503 Vol.
No

Kamala 20+ times
$10,819 Vol.
Yes

Tax 15+ times
$7,102 Vol.
No

China 8+ times
$7,334 Vol.
Yes

Biden 8+ times
$11,007 Vol.
Yes

American dream 3+ times
$25,188 Vol.
Yes

Hispanic 3+ times
$15,728 Vol.
Yes

Crypto/Bitcoin
$193,393 Vol.
No

Rig/Rigged
$15,161 Vol.
Yes

Native American
$6,761 Vol.
No

ICE
$10,704 Vol.
Yes

Halloween
$15,225 Vol.
No

Paper clip
$7,985 Vol.
No