US strikes Afghanistan by October 31?
$96,119 Vol.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Afghan soil or any official Afghan embassy or consulate between September 30, 7:30 PM ET, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Afghan ground territory or any official Afghan embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Afghan soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Afghan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Afghan ground territory or any official Afghan embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Afghan soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Afghan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$96,119
End Date
Oct 31, 2025
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
$96,119 Vol.
US strikes Afghanistan by October 31?
About
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Afghan soil or any official Afghan embassy or consulate between September 30, 7:30 PM ET, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Afghan ground territory or any official Afghan embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Afghan soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Afghan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Afghan ground territory or any official Afghan embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Afghan soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Afghan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$96,119
End Date
Oct 31, 2025
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.