Trader consensus prices a U.S. nuclear explosive test by December 31, 2026 at only 14 percent, reflecting substantial technical, legislative, and diplomatic barriers. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China prompted planning discussions, yet subsequent statements emphasized subcritical and non-explosive activities rather than full-yield detonations. A September 30, 2026 non-nuclear chemical high-explosive experiment at the Nevada National Security Site focused on detection capabilities rather than weapons effects. Site readiness timelines of 24–36 months, Senate proposals requiring congressional approval, and bipartisan stockpile stewardship programs continue to constrain near-term prospects. No full-yield test has occurred since 1992.